Prof. Theodore “Ted” Postol is a highly respected retired professor of MIT. He also served as a scientific adviser to the U.S. Chief of Naval Operations at the Pentagon. He has now claimed that Iran has the capacity to build 10–12 nuclear bombs within weeks. This conclusion is based on standard technical uranium stockpile and centrifuge cascades. However, we need to recognize that there is a significant difference between the technical reality of breakout time and actual weaponization. Obtaining assessments of Iran’s enriched weapons-grade uranium is not the same as having a deployable nuclear device. Fabricating the fissile core, designing an implosion mechanism, fitting it into a warhead, and testing it generally require additional months of technical work. Thus, while the “breakout time” to produce enough material for 10 bombs is a matter of weeks, assembling 10 functional, missile-ready warheads within 10 weeks assumes Iran has already completed all non-nuclear weaponization preparation in secret. Therefore, any claim that Iran could field multiple ready-to-use bombs within weeks is a highly subjective guess unless supported by additional intelligence.
As for Israel, it is widely assessed in open-source literature to possess nuclear weapons, although it maintains a policy of deliberate ambiguity. Open-source estimates generally place its arsenal in the range of roughly 90 to 200 warheads, but such figures should be treated as approximate. What matters more for strategic analysis is not the exact number, but the credibility of Israel’s deterrent and the survivability of its delivery systems.
As regards the USA, it is the second-largest holder of nuclear weapons- approximately 5000 as against an estimated 5500 warheads of Russia.
The central political question is not whether a nuclear capability exists, but whether nuclear weapons could be used. Countries build nuclear bombs as a strategic deterrence, to prevent other major powers from attacking their homeland or vital interests. Since 1945, there has been no direct military conflict between the USA and other major countries because of the existence of this deterrence. USA could run over Venezuela without any resistance, but India had to retreat from a full-fledged attack on Pakistan, a nuclear-weaponized country, because of this Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) possibility.
USA and Israel are only interested in preventing Iran from acquiring entry into this MAD group of countries.
In summary, the most defensible conclusion is not that nuclear conflict is imminent, but rather that the risk of escalation has heightened. Both the United States and Israel remain at a loss regarding how to deter Iran from pursuing nuclear capabilities.
While on this apocalyptic subject, I recall a poem on the subject of Existential Stakes that human beings, at least a significant segment of humanity, face now:
To say the things he truly feels And not the words of one who kneels For what is a man, what has he got? If not himself, then he has naught