Author: Ashok Nag

  • Indian Official Statistical System-through a looking glass erroneously

    Data can’t speak for itself; it’s up to you to give it a voice. Try to speak truthfully.” – Ronald Coase

    Introduction

    Recently a debate took place on the pages of Indian Express (starting on July 7 edition) about the quality of survey-based data released by the National Sample Survey Organizations (NSSO). Before that doubts about quality of Indian official statistics data were aired through two working papers issued by Economic Advisory Council of the Prime Minister (EAC-PM). When a couple of eminent economists of impeccable credentials and having advisory role to none other than the honourable prime minster of India raises serious doubt about the quality and accuracy of some key statistical products that are supposed to reflect, directly or indirectly, the performance of the economy, it is incumbent on the statistical professionals to take these criticisms seriously and put out their non-partisan views to the public at large.

    In 1994, the General Assembly of United Nations approved 10 Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics, as adopted by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) in 1992. The first principle explains why official statistics is an “indispensable element in the information system of a democratic society”.  The second principle explicates the requirements to “retain trust in official statistics” – an ethical and strictly professional approach towards adoption of “methods and procedures for the collection, processing, storage and presentation of statistical data” (United Nations, Resolution adopted by the Economic and Social Council on 24 July 2013).

    The OECD Committee on Statistics in 2008 initiated an effort to measure “Trust in Official Statistics” (OECD 2011) . In July 2012, the model questionnaire for measuring trust in official statistics was published in the Statistics Newsletter of OECD (OECD Statistics 2012). The approach adopted for this measurement was based on three factors- Structural, Statistical and Reputation. Impartiality (that is no political interference) and independence, amongst others, were identified as structural factors while compliance with international standards was considered as one of the statistical factors. Six national statistical agencies participated in testing of this questionnaire.

    Using the OECD questionnaire as the base, 6 US statistical agencies (Federal Statistical System-FSS) developed a trust measuring questionnaire in the US context and used Gallup daily poll to add its questions between February 2012 and September 2013. One major conclusion of this survey was-

    Data users have formed a relationship with statistics and the statistical institutions that produce this data; accordingly, we interpret their higher levels of trust to be a result of a relationship formed between the data user and the data.  (Childs, Jennifer er al, 2019)

    Incidentally, both Dr. Sanjeev Sanyal and Dr. Shamika Ravi – lead authors of the two monographs under discussion -have used NSSO data in some of their earlier research articles. As users of Indian survey data, they did not express any reservation about data quality or underlying sampling methodology. They trusted NSSO data. The monograph titled Estimating the value of educational capital formation in India is based on data of surveys of employment and unemployment conducted for 1993 and 1998 by NSSO. The same is true for the article titled Health and Morbidity in India (2004-2014), authored by Shamika Ravi. It was published under the banner of Brookings India carries out a comparative study of healthcare in India over the ten years using data of round 60 and round 71 of NSSO. It may not be out of place to note that Sanyal’s article was written under the auspices of United Nations.  

    The present article aims to examine the veracity of the criticisms raised by these two members of the EAC-PM regarding the quality of estimation of key policy performance indicators by NSSO surveys. However, prior to delving into the deficiencies of indicators highlighted by the economist members of EAC-PM, it is pertinent to acknowledge the valid concerns articulated by the EAC-PM’s chairman pertaining to the broader management issues of the official statistical system (Bibek Debroy, June 2023). Some of the well-known deficiencies flagged by the chairman are -inordinate delay in releasing of survey data, lack of proficient manpower, and outdated recruitment process of qualified statisticians.

    The responsibility of rectifying these deficiencies and effecting necessary resolutions inherently falls within the purview of the government machinery. The chairman of the EAC-PM should wield the authority and agency to collaboratively seek remedies from the relevant governmental entities. Addressing these systemic concerns will not only enhance the statistical capabilities of the nation but also fortify the foundation upon which sound policy decisions can be formulated and assessed.

    In the following two sections, I examine the maintainability of various statistical issues raised by the following two working papers of EAC-PM.

    1. Reversing the Gaze:  Re-examining Estimates of India’s Development Indicators by International Organisation:  EAC-PM Working Paper Series EAC-PM/WP/14/2023; March 2023 Authors: Sanjeev Sanyal, Aakanksha Arora, and Srishti Chauhan; henceforth, referred to as WP1.
    2. Assessing the National Surveys for its Representativeness:   An Analysis of the Data Quality of the National Sample Survey (NSS)- July 2023 Authors: Shamika Ravi, Mudit Kapoor, and S V Subramanian; henceforth, referred to as WP 2

    Section I:  Criticisms of methodologies adopted for computation of different indicators in WP 1

    This working paper deals with accuracy and soundness of “three widely used data-driven development indicators” which according to the authors “seem to stagnate or even deteriorate despite a rise in per capita income in India” (Executive summary pp3). These three indicators are             ” Childhood Stunting”, “Female Labour Force Participation Rate (FLFPR)”, and “Life Expectancy at Birth”.

    Indicator No-1 Stunting

    Childhood malnutrition has deleterious effects on a child’s growth over age. Two important measures of these effects are wasting and stunting. Wasting is defined as low weight-for-height. Stunting is defined as low height-for-age. The prevalence of stunting amongst Indian children in the age group of 0-5 years has been declining over the years. The authors have quoted the following trend- 35.5% in 2019-21(rural 37.3%; urban 30.1%)- down from 38.4% In 2015-16 and 48% in 2005-06. The source of this data is National Family Health Survey (NFHS). The estimates of stunting have been worked out using the WHO’s global standard for this measure. The authors have questioned the methodology adopted by WHO in deriving this standard and, furthermore, its applicability in the Indian context.

    Who Standard for Stunting

    WHO conducted a multicentre growth reference study (MGRS) between 1997 and 2003 in 6 countries with the objective of deriving a “single international reference representing the best standard possible of optimal growth for all children < 5 y of age” ( de Onis et al 2004). The selected countries were Brazil, Ghana, India, Norway, Oman and the United States, covering all geographical regions.

    The important point to note is the word “optimal growth”. The purpose of the MGRS study is to arrive at a global standard for the growth in height of a healthy and well-fed child. The study is not aimed to prescribe a global standard for height for children in the selected age group. To be more precise, WHO standard is with respect to “Growth velocity” of “height-for-age”. It is defined as the change in height or length over time.

    Since the objective of the MRGS study is to find “optimal growth” of breast-fed healthy children, surveys were conducted to “identify socioeconomic characteristics that could be used to select groups whose growth was not environmentally constrained”. Thus, “Families’ low socioeconomic status was the most common reason for ineligibility in Brazil, Ghana, India and Oman”.   In India, the “sample was drawn from 58 affluent neighbourhoods in South Delhi. This community was selected to facilitate the recruitment of children who had at least one parent with 17 or more years of education, a key factor associated with unconstrained child growth in this setting. (Bhandari Nita et al 2004)Before New Delhi was chosen for the MRGS study, a survey was conducted in south Delhi in order to “determine whether affluent population in south Delhi had a growth performance similar to that in developed countries” (Bhandari Nita et al 2002). The survey found that the growth performance of children of the affluent population in Delhi were “close to the NCHS/WHO reference population with regard to anthropometric indicators”. Even better growth was registered for children of parents with higher educational background. 

    The issue of using a global standard for estimating prevalence of children malnutrition has been criticised by a relatively small group of researchers. Since mean height and weight of children at various age group vary from country to country, some experts argued that it is expected that required growth curve should be country specific. So, a new growth curve, called synthetic growth curve has been proposed and applied to a small group of countries like Indonesia, Malwai and a few more. There is a confusion about the use of CDC growth curve in USA as against WHO growth curve. But CDC has clarified the purpose of introducing CDC growth reference curve:

     “Whereas the WHO charts describe growth of healthy children in optimal conditions, the 2000 CDC growth charts are a growth reference, not a standard, and describe how certain children grew in a particular place and time. The CDC charts describe the growth of children in the United States during a span of approximately 30 years (1963-1994) (Grummer-Strawn et al 2010).”

    The idea of synthetic growth curve was proposed by Michael Hermanussen and others in a 2015 paper. Based on “a reference combination of longitudinal and cross-sectional modern and historic growth studies with data on height and weight, global mean values and a limited number of Principal Components that characterizes the variability of growth in the reference combination” were calculated (Hermanussen Michael et al 2015). It is surprising that there was no transformation of the underlying variables for bringing normality so that 2-standard deviation outlier detection would be more appropriate. In fact, the reported empirical results based on data of 196 females and 197 males, collected from 2000(!) earlier studies cannot inspire confidence in the robustness of this methodology.

    In the Indian context few researchers have sought to estimate prevalence of stunting using India specific reference growth curve using this methodology. All of them used methodology proposed by Hermanussen and his collaborators. Khadilkar et al (2019) used 46,421 children’s data for computing reference synthetic growth chart. To produce synthetic references, arithmetic means of height and weight at key ages viz. birth, 2, 6, 12 and 15 years for girls and birth, 2, 6, 14 and 18 years for boys were used. Obviously synthetic references were not for “optimal” growth but for average growth of selected age-groups. To compare this with WHO standard is wrong to begin with. Since the synthetic reference chart for India was not developed as the desired or “optimal growth” chart based on carefully selected reference group of children of India as MRGS study did, the comparison that was carried out using that synthetic chart is not a valid comparison (Khadilkar 2025).  

    In another study of comparison of the results of prevalence of stunting as between the one using WHO standard with the India specific synthetic refence chart, the researchers selected its sample units in the following way:

    “Apparently healthy children between the ages of 0 and 60 months attending an urban health centre and a rural primary health centre for vaccination were included in this study” (Sujit Mehta et al 2022). The words “apparently healthy children” used for sampling method belies the quality of such samples for the intended comparison.

    WHO conducted a survey of the status of implementation of “WHO Child Growth Standards” by its member countries (de Onis 2012). Out of 219 countries contacted for the survey, responses were received from 180 countries, of which 125 informed adoptions of WHO standards. Non-response was observed mostly for small countries. India has reported adoption of WHO standards in compilation of the indicators for child malnutrition. It is necessary to emphasize that non-adoption of international standards on computation of key national performance indicators like GDP, Export/Import data, compilation of balance of payment data cannot be an option for a country that wants to become a global superpower.

    Finally, a comparative position of India among some selected countries in terms of this indicator on stunting, per the WHO standard, should be of greater importance to policy makers. The data given in the following table speaks for itself.

    Table 1.1: Trend in prevalence of stunting among children under age 5 for selected countries.

          Prevalence of stunting, height for age (% of children under 5)
    Country Starting yearData for starting year End YearData for end YearNumber of years between two data pointsAverage Rate of  Yearly Reduction
    Bangladesh200051.120192819-3.2%
    Brazil1996132007711-5.6%
    China200017.820174.817-7.7%
    India199954.2201734.718-2.5%
    Indonesia200042.4201830.818-1.8%
    Malaysia199920.7201921.8200.3%
    Pakistan200141.4201837.617-0.6%
    South Africa199930.1201721.418-1.9%
    Sri Lanka200018.3201617.316-0.4%
    Vietnam200043.2202019.620-4.0%

    Note to the table 1.1: Start year is the nearest year from 2000 for which data is available. End year is that year for which data is available and is closest to 2022. Average yearly reduction is computed by log of ratio of start data to end data divided by total number of elapsed years between these two years. Source: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-of-children-younger-than-5-who-suffer-from-stunting

    Indicator No 2. Female Labour Force Participation Rate (FLFPR)

    The second section of WP1 is titled as “Flaws in Female Labour Force Participation Estimation: ILO’s Unworkable Maths”. The content of the section thereafter “reverses its gaze”, as reflected in the following line in the first para of the section itself:

    “this section finds quite the different that how not following an appropriate internationally accepted standard leads to serious underestimation of a relevant labour market and gender equality statistic i.e., the Female Labour Force Participation Rate for India.”

    Obviously, the authors are confused about their target of criticism- ILO or Indian estimates of the indicator.  The source of this confusion lies in the fact that declining rural FLFPR of India is a much analysed and debated subject.

    In the World Population Conference held at Belgrade in 1965, J.N.Sinha of India, suggested a U-type movement in FLFPR as per capita income increases “The rate’s decline with an increase in income up to $500, but begin to rise with further gains in income.  ..  Within the rural areas, the rates vary inversely with agricultural prosperity and the proportion of non-agricultural work force. Labour force participation of women also declines with literacy, but female education above the matriculation level favours higher rates of employment (Sinha 1965).[1]

    In 2011, Bhalla and Kaur wrote a working paper titled Labour Force Participation of Women in India: Some facts, some queries. They made one interesting extension to the computation of labour force by adding students in the age group 15-59 to the labour force. They called it adjusted labour force and computed the FLFPR based on NSSO defined labour force as well as the” adjusted labour force”


    [1] See also D. Narasimha Reddy, Female Work Participation in India: Facts, Problems, and Policies Source: Indian Journal of Industrial Relations, Vol. 15, No. 2 (Oct., 1979)

    Table 2.1  Percentage of female population in Labour Force and adjusted labour Force

    AreaYear->   19831993/94 1999/002004/052007/08
    RuralUnadjusted Labour Force 45.1 53.145.244.737.6
    Adjusted Labour Force 46.855.949.550.444.4
    UrbanUnadjusted Labour Force 2323  22.524.319.7
    Adjusted Labour Force 30.533.333.435.532.3

    In a 2014 ILO research paper, Steven Kapsos and his two fellow ILO economists expanded the definitional boundary of labour force used by NSSO by including those “people who were engaged in domestic economically gainful activities such as collection of firewood, poultry etc.” ( Kapsos 2014). Based on this expanded size of labour force, they computed a new LFPR, termed as Augmented LFPR. The following table gives their computation of Augmented LFPR for both sexes and regions.

    Table 2.2: Labour force participation rates (%), UPSS and augmented definition, by sex and area

    UPSS DefinitionAugmented definition
    Area1994200020052010201219942000200520102012
    Rural4945.449.437.835.880.87776.370.166.8
    Urban23.820.824.419.420.545.238.539.135.932.1
    All areas42.738.942.732.631.271.866.866.460.356.4

    UPSS: usual principal and subsidiary status; Age group is 15+.

    The expanded definition of labour force did not result in any substantial difference in the trend observed in the NSSO defined rural female labour force participation rate. This result of augmentation is not unexpected given the substantial share of persons engaged in domestic activities in rural India- see Table 2.3 below.

    Table 2.3: Shares of the working-age population engaged in domestic duties.  

    GenderRegion19942000200520102012
    FemaleRural42.443.939.849.449.9
    FemaleUrban60.761.959.362.161.1
    MaleRural0.40.40.40.50.5
    MaleUrban0.50.40.40.60.3

    The ILO economists identified 4 key factors for changes in female participation rates- “increased attendance in education”, “increased household consumption levels”, changes in measurement of economic activities”, and “changes in employment opportunities” and carried out a statistical exercise to estimate the relative contribution of these factors towards the decline of FLFPR in rural areas. Their conclusion at the end is worth reproducing.

    “The econometric results indicate that religion and social perceptions of women, women’s level of

    education, household size and income, and the presence of young children in the household all influence the likelihood of India’s women to participate in the labour market. We find that structural

    characteristics in the labour market have played a more important role than changes in the underlying characteristics of the female working-age population in influencing participation rates. These structural barriers, such as norms that inhibit women’s labour market options, in conjunction with a consistent decline in agricultural employment, are likely to be key factors in explaining the long-term stagnation in female participation rates.” (Kapsos 2014 ,page 31)

    In a 2015 IMF Working paper, Sonal das & others carried out a regression analysis to identify determinants of female labor force participation in India in both urban and rural areas(Das Sonali 2015). Amongst the 5 “stylized facts” noted by the authors based on 5 NSSO EUS between 1993-94 and 2011-12, two are about causal factors for the observed declining trend in rural FLFPR:

    • There is a U-shaped relationship between education and labor force participation rates of women
    • Income has a dampening effect on female labor force participation rates

    It is now beyond doubt that the issue of declining FLFPR in rural India is a known and well researched issue. Everyone who has dealt with the issue were aware of the differences in definitional boundary of “economic activity” adopted by NSSO surveys as compared to that of national income accounting.  The difference is spelt out in the 68th round( NSS.

    Although production of any good for own consumption is considered as economic activity by UN System of National Accounts, production of only primary goods for own consumption was considered as economic activity by NSSO for the purpose of the survey. While the former considers activities like own account processing of primary products as economic activities, processing of primary products for own consumption was not considered as economic activity in the NSS surveys.

    This deliberate exclusion of domestic work related to “processing of primary products for own consumption” from the scope of “economic activity” is justified from the perspective of estimation of real employment opportunities available to rural female, particularly those are “poor” and outside any formal educational system. By giving such females the stamp of “worker” is a meaningless glorification towards the satisfaction of policy makers. In this connection, the following quote from Dantawala committee report of 1970, which provided the framework for NSS Employment-Unemployment survey, is still relevant for the Indian scenario of female participation in labour force:

    On the basis of our present knowledge, it is difficult to predict with any accuracy either direction of the change in the labour participation rate or the kind of transformation that may take place in the pattern of labour supply. All one can say is that it would be a serious mistake to proceed on the assumption that the entire labour force is of a homogenous character and make estimates of increases in the labour force simply on the basis of population projections and aggregate sex-age specific participation in data relating to the past.

    It is nobody’s case that there is no shortcoming of the methodology and implementation  practice of NSSO surveys. Issues that are being raised by statistical community itself about these shortcomings are significant and substantial. Since NSSO surveys deal with the subjects that are inherently political – poverty, unemployment, malnutrition etc. -it is natural that such shortcomings will be looked with a glass politically tinted, and one need not be squeamish about that. Angus Deaton and Valerie Kozel, while discussing the utility of NSSO survey data for estimation of poverty in India provided the most balanced view about these surveys.

    “Inevitably, mistakes will be made, surveys will be compromised by internal or external factors, so that poverty assessments will have to be made using imperfectly comparable surveys. The Indian experience illustrates the possibility of repair to enhance the credibility of estimates. But that experience also made it clear that repairs, however creative, are a poor substitute for the collection of clean, credible, and comprehensive data. What are convincing assumptions to one can be absurd to another, and people’s political positions seem to play a role in the assumptions that they are prepared to make. Nevertheless, the Indian debate has shown that discussion and advance is possible, even among those with very different preconceptions, and that the balance of opinion can be changed by well-reasoned and transparent argument (Deaton & Kozel 2004)”

    Keeping the issue of definition of “work/employment” aside, the authors’ computation makes one point crystal clear- rising female full-time participation in education would be one possible factor for declining FLFPR in rural areas. It must be noted here that higher FLFPT in rural areas as compared to in urban areas is a sign of higher incidence of poverty in rural areas.

    Indicator 3: Decline in Life Expectancy at Birth: An Untenable Narrative

    The Human Development Index (HDI) has been introduced by UN to provide an aggregate measure of human development of its member countries. HDI is computed as a geometric mean of 3 constituent indices reflecting 3 dimensions of human development, namely, a long and healthy life, access to knowledge and a decent standard of living. The HDI is the geometric mean of normalized indices for each of these three dimensions. The proxy for “a long and healthy life” is the indicator “Life Expectancy at Birth” which accounts for 35% of the overall HDI[1].


    [1] Technical Notes: Human Development Report 2021/22

    hdr.undp.org/system/files/documents/technical-notes-calculating-human-development-indices.pdf

    Life Expectancy at any given age (age is 0 for a newborn) is the expected residual years that a person is expected to live. For HDI, “Life Expectancy at Birth” is needed. There are two variants of this measure- cohort life expectancy and period life expectancy

    For the first variety, one identifies a group of people born in a particular year and track their deaths over time. It is then simple to work out the average number of years lived by that group. Since it is not possible to estimate the cohort life expectancy in this way unless all members of the cohort have died, a statistical estimate is worked out by combining the past mortality rates of the cohort at a given point of time and a projected mortality rate for the future.   

    For “period life expectancy” we first estimate mortality rate of the current period (year) for a particular group of people defined by any attribute (say age group by sex) and then assume that rate to remain constant over time. Under this assumption, it would be possible to work out average life expectancy for that group for that specific year. Since mortality rate of a given population changes over time, this measure of Life Expectancy would also change. More importantly, we need to estimate mortality rates based on the deaths that have occurred in a particular year and so it would change if there is a spike in death rates, say due to a pandemic, in a particular year. It appears that authors of the working paper of EAC-PM have overlooked this issue. As soon as death rates fall in subsequent years, we will again see changes in opposite direction for that year. The published figures for 2023 by WHO confirms this.

    YearBoth sexesFemaleMale
    201066.968.665.3
    201167.469.165.8
    201267.969.666.3
    201368.570.167
    201469.170.667.7
    201569.671.168.3
    201670.171.568.8
    201770.571.969.2
    201870.772.169.4
    201970.972.469.5
    202070.171.868.6
    202167.268.965.8
    202267.769.466.3
    20237273.670.5
       Table 3. 1 Year wise Life Expectancy for India

    Once we understand that the estimated decline in Life Expectancy at Birth for India does not suffer from any conceptual flaws per se, we need to examine the computational aspect of mortality rates for different segments of the Indian population that WHO have used for the pandemic years. This issue has attracted sharp criticism from the authors of the paper under discussion because of its impact on estimation of life expectancy. We must emphasise here that WHO has not undertaken any new adjustment to the officially reported All Cause Mortality (ACM) for Indian population. What has been revised is the officially declared mortality due to COVID-19. Estimation of Life Expectancy during the pandemic years critically depends on a correct estimate of death due to  COVID-19 for the simple reason that such deaths were much higher in the adult age-groups. Any spike in the mortality of higher age groups would then bring down the life expectancy at birth. Bhattacharya et al has pointed out how social stigma associated with segregation of COVID-19 patients led to a situation of “creating a fear among the public and is acting as a deterrent to the effective management of the disease, particularly in the urban setup (Bhattacharya Prama er al 2020).” So, there is a distinct possibility of under reporting of COVID related deaths.

    Since COVID-19 is a new phenomenon, death due to COVID-19 would only add to number of deaths that would have happened in the absence of COVID-19. WHO has defined this excess death as “the mortality above what would be expected based on the non-crisis mortality rate in the population of interest”.

    WHO has identified two countries (India and Indonesia) for which ACM data is available only at sub-regional level and not at national level. For these two countries, WHO constructed “a multinomial model, based on the assumption that the fractions of deaths in sub-regions remain approximately constant over time.” (Knutson Victoria et al 2023). Excess death estimated by WHO’s method has been compared with the results of few other methods and differences are within reasonable bounds.

    ApproachEstimate (10^6)95% Confidence intervalPeriod
    Naïve5.04(4.48,5.59)Jan20-Dec21
    WHO4.74(3.31,6.48)Jan20-Dec21
    The Economist4.86(1.70, 8.47)Jan20-Dec21
    IHME4.07(3.71, 4.36)Jan20-Dec21
    Naïve4.29(4.00,4.59)June 20-June21
    WHO4.33(2.85,6.13)June 20-June21
    Jha et. al.3.23(3.06, 3.39)June 20-June21
    Naïve3.96(3.62, 4.29)April20-June21
    WHO3.99(2.40, 5.95)April20-June21
    Anand et.al. 2021 Method 13.4 April20-June21
    Anand et.al. 2021 Method 24 April20-June21
    Anand et.al. 2021 Method 34.9 April20-June21
    Table 3.2 Estimates of Excess Death due to COVID-19 by different approaches: Note:     The estimate by Jha et al. (2022) is for excess COVID-19 deaths. The naive estimates are based on the ACM estimates  where Yt,1 is the observed ACM from the available states, and s the estimated fraction of deaths available in month t. The estimate by Jha et al.  is based on a nationally representative telephone survey, a government survey that covers 0.14 million adults and the Government of India’s data from facility-based deaths and CRS deaths in 10 states. Anand et al. (2021) use three methods: Indian States’ CRS (method 1), international age-specific infection fatality rates applied to Indian demography (method 2) and seroprevalence and a household survey (method 3) (quoted from Knutson Victoria 2023 ).

    A few researchers have dealt with this issue of estimating death rates directly attributable to COVID-19 using micro level sample data. I would like to refer two studies for their innovative use of covid related death rates of well demarcated community of people to work out a national level estimate of death due to COVID-19. The first study was by Christophe Z. Guilmoto (2022), who identified four different samples of Indian populations, having complete data on their demographic structure and death occurrence. Selection of the four samples were largely subjective and not driven by any sampling mechanism. However, the author had applied three criteria for sample selection. These were – reliability of death estimation, regional   representativeness, and demographic characteristics. The selected samples were:

    a: Kerala sample: Dataset of deaths by age and sex in Kerala state

    b. MLA sample: Deaths of elected representatives

    c. IR(Indian Railways) sample: Deaths of Indian Railways personnel

    d. Karnataka sample: Deaths of schoolteachers in Karnataka state

    The Kerala sampleis a dataset with 26,628 Covid-19 deaths classified by age and sex on

    18 October 2021. The MLA sample is relatively small sample of 5,837 MPs and MLAs. The Karnataka sample is a sample of 268 deaths attributed to Covid-19 among 196,163 schoolteachers of Karnataka.

    The author followed the following estimation strategy of the country level mortality due to COVID-19.

    1. Use Kerala data to determine the age and sex schedule of Covid-19 mortality in

    India, but not to estimate its intensity.

    • Apply Kerala Covid-19 mortality rates to project the number of deaths in the three other samples (MLA, IR and Karnataka). Intensity of mortality is adjusted to fit the number of observed deaths in these three samples.
    • This adjusted mortality patterns is applied to India’s age and sex structure to yield national level estimates of Covid-19 mortality in May 2021. The numbers of deaths are finally projected to 15 October 2021 using trends reflected in the official Covid-19 casualty statistics and contrasted with international figures using standardized rates

    The following table summarizes outcome of this exercise.

    Table 3.3 : Estimates of cumulative Covid-19 deaths in India

                             SourcesUnitsReference day           (in 2021)
    Official estimate* IR SampleMLA sample
    Covid-19 deaths243.51,701.80000s07-May
    325.82,276.60**2,597.10000s25-May
    458.93,206.90**3,658.30***000s1st November
    Correction factor178.6—-1st November
    Death rates0.32.32.6per 10001st November
    *Smoothed cumulative series from Worldometer
    **: Projected using the trends in official Covid-19 deaths.
    ***: Computed as estimated deaths/official deaths.

    Acosta et. al. (2022) have estimated excess mortality in the State of Gujarat, India, during the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020-April 2021) by using data from civil death registers from a convenience sample of 90 municipalities across the state of Gujarat. This study found that “the largest increases in mortality occurred in the second wave of the pandemic, across all municipalities”. It was further found that “over 80% of the municipalities experienced increases in mortality over 100% in all demographic groups except the two youngest age cohorts. Lastly, in over 50% of the municipalities, males and the 40 to 65 years groups experienced an increase of over 500%.”

    To sum up, there is enough evidence to accept the Life Expectancy estimated by WHO for the two pandemic years. The suggestion by the authors of Reversing the Gaze, “that the Registrar General of India should timely publish life expectancy estimates every year” is highly recommended but not for the alleged unfounded observation that “one-sided adjustments and circular references are routinely done to India-related data by international agencies.”

    Section 2: Analysis of Methodological criticisms of WP 2

    This paper’s stated objective is to provide a “quantitative analysis of the data quality of the National Sample Survey (NSS) in terms of three estimates, (i) the proportion of the rural population, (ii) the proportion of the Scheduled Caste (SC) population, and (iii) the proportion of the working-age (age between 15 and 59 years) population”.

    Although the above noted estimates are published in the reports of these surveys, these are neither the focus of any NSS survey nor are these used in any survey report from this perspective.  On the contrary, population census data is used for allocation of total sample to various stages of selection of survey households at village and urban block level[1]. To be consistent with survey design, it is necessary to estimate population from the selected households and work out various ratios like labour force participation rate, distribution of persons of each sector of each State/UT over 12 classes of MPCE (monthly per capita consumption expenditure).


    [1] NSSO follows a stratified multi-stage design for its surveys. The first stage units (FSU) are the 2001 census villages (Panchayat wards in case of Kerala) in the rural sector and Urban Frame Survey (UFS) blocks in the urban sector. For the rural sector, the list of 2001 census villages constitutes the sampling frame. For the urban sector, the list of UFS blocks (2007-12) is considered as the sampling frame

    Notwithstanding the above, drawing direct comparisons between the estimated rural and urban population data obtained from this survey and the corresponding figures from the 2011 census data requires careful consideration due to several factors. Firstly, the census figures were collected as on a particular day- 31st March 2011, whereas this survey was conducted in 4 sub-round of 3 months each, spanning July 2011 to June 2012. The figures from the survey are not expected to match with that of census data. Secondly, there are homeless people, convicted prisoners in jail, floating populations who are not covered by NSS surveys. Such people would be more likely to be in urban areas and this would negatively impact share of urban population. Nevertheless, there is no straight forward answer to the impact that these exclusions would have on the target measures like rate of unemployment or incidence of poverty at sub-national levels.

    Keeping the above caveat in perspective, I argue in the following paragraphs that the application of the new concept of Total Sample Error (TSE) is a completely misguided application of statistical techniques which have been specially developed for sampling issues related to Big data and/or large non probabilistically obtained administrative data.

    Professor Meng has clarified that his paper is focussed on population inferences from Big Data (Meng 2018). Dr. Ravi and her colleagues have used the formula given in the Meng’s paper to compute sampling bias- the difference between the sample average of a variable of interest and its population average . This has been worked out, in Meng’s paper, as a product of three terms: (1) a data quality measure, (2) a data quantity measure, and (3) a problem difficulty measure. In case of NSS survey, the data quality is to be ascertained at the final stage sampling process- from a village or an urban block because final estimates are built up from that level. There is no evidence so far that NSS surveys suffer from a data quality issue because respondents are non-cooperative or deliberately providing wrong numbers. Furthermore, implementation of interpenetrating subsample and use of two sets of investigators (central sampling and state sampling) would clearly bring out any abnormal variation in estimation of target variables. In fact, Dr. Meng agrees that “under a genuine probabilistic sampling, the chance that a particular value of G (i.e., target variable, my addition) is recorded/reported or not should not depend on the value itself. Consequently, ρR,G should be zero on average.” So would be the sampling bias.

    In another paper on this subject, the same inference has been drawn for a probabilistic sample survey, – “random sampling or any sample design that provides constant inclusions probabilities, the term for data quality ER(𝜌RX) is 0 and thus the bias is also 0 (Biemer and Amaya 2018)

    Foot note: NSSO follows a stratified multi-stage design for its surveys. The first stage units (FSU) are the 2001 census villages (Panchayat wards in case of Kerala) in the rural sector and Urban Frame Survey (UFS) blocks in the urban sector. For the rural sector, the list of 2001 census villages constitutes the sampling frame. For the urban sector, the list of UFS blocks (2007-12) is considered as the sampling frame

    Unfortunately, Dr. Shamika and her colleagues have mechanically used Dr. Meng’s approach developed for Big data/Administrative data to assess quality of NSS survey data, without critically reviewing the NSS sampling design. The way to have an independent assessment of any sampling estimate was nicely brought out with an example by none other than founding fathers of NSS – Prof P. C. Mahalonobis and D. B. Lahiri. In their paper (1961) “Analysis of Errors in Censuses and Surveys with Special Reference to Experience in India” they compared the “results obtained on the basis of complete enumeration and sample survey against a third, but extremely reliable, figure.” This could be carried out for two consecutive years – 1944-45 and 1945-46- for Jute Crop of Bengal. Jute being a cash crop of international importance, accurate export trade figures were available after a gap of 15 months of harvest. So, there was a need for a quick estimation of production. The official approach to meet this demand was to carry out a plot-to-plot enumeration. Indian Statistical Institute undertook two sample surveys- one for estimation of acreages and subsequently another for post-harvest yields. Surveys were conducted using two interpenetrating sub-samples (IPNS) which were covered by different parties of investigators. These two independently computed values were compared with the trade figures. The result was follows.

    ” in both the years the official forecasts based on complete count were both very much out whereas the sample survey estimates were quite close to the trade figures. The two sub-sample (IPNS) estimates in both years agreed with the trade estimates within roughly 3 per cent while the estimates based on the so-called complete count differed from the trade figures by 27.2 per cent in 1944-45 and 16.6 per cent in 1945-46”

    Finally, it would be amiss if Dr. Ravi’s stringent criticism of NSS sampling design in her article “The sample is wrong” published in the Indian Express 7th July edition. Three areas of her concerns are: availability of data, transparent and robust statistical analysis, and data quality.

    The first area of concern- more frequent and timely availability of survey data to policy makers for evaluating any policy intervention at national level- is indeed a crucial one, and it requires a coordinated effort between statistical authorities and government decision-makers to address it effectively. As a member of the EAC-PM the author can play a significant role in advocating for the importance of timely and frequent survey data.

    As I have pointed out in my discussion on WP-2 above, the data quality measure used therein is meant for non-probabilistic data or for an integrated dataset of administrative data and a probabilistic sampling data. Thus, the author has not given any statistically valid argument to declare that “Sample is wrong”.

    Nevertheless, the author’s use of Meng’s approach to measuring of Total Sampling Error has inadvertently brought into focus the need for using “found data” in conjunction with the usual probabilistically sampled data for estimation of many social and economic indicators of a country as large as India. Administrative data are a type of found data which gets routinely generated as a part of the official activities like getting a subsidy, registering of birth and death, registering of vehicles, getting unemployment benefit, income tax data etc.   Many official statistical authorities in advanced countries are already exploring big data or found data integration with survey data to achieve better quality of statistical estimates of important economic and social indicators. For example, Statistics New Zealand has established an Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) , sourcing data from government agencies, Stats NZ surveys, and non-government organisations (NGOs). Statistics Netherlands has established a Center for Big Data Statistics in 2016 “with the primary purpose of leveraging new and existing (big) data sources and techniques in order to arrive at better information about social themes such as the labour market, mobility, health, the energy transition and smart farming.” (Unique collaboration for big data research (cbs.nl) ). Statistics Canada uses administrative data to complement or to replace survey data.

    Dr. Ravi’s criticism about the quality of Indian Official Statistics, however methodologically flawed it might be, needs deep appreciation because it has highlighted the absence of any innovation in statistical methodology used in production of the critical social and economic indicators. in the last two decades. Thus, to paraphrase Agatha Christie, the Indian Statistical Mirror as shown to us by the official statistical system might not have “crack’d from side to side”, but it is gradually becoming covered with dust of obsolescence.

  • Post With Sidebar

    Post With Sidebar

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  • Teaching Evolution to Children: NCERT in a Fool’s Paradise

    Background

    National Council of Educational Research and Training (NCERT) is an autonomous organisation set up in 1961 by the Government of India to assist and advise Central and State governments on issues relating to school education. Textbooks issued by NCERT are recommended textbooks in all CBSE schools. In the wake of COVID-19, when schools were closed for a large part of the academic year, NCERT started a rationalization process of contents of textbooks of class 6 to class 12. This was buttressed by the National Education Policy of 2022 which stated, “The reduction in content and increased flexibility of school curriculum – and the renewed emphasis on constructive rather than rote learning – must be accompanied by parallel changes in school textbooks”1.

    For the Class 10 science syllabus, the chapter 9 was rationalized in the following manner:

    1. Chapter name changed from “Heredity and Evolution” to “Heredity.”
    2. Dropped Items:

    Box item: Charles Robert Darwin

                                        Box item: Origin of life on earth

                                         Box item: How do fossils form layer by layer

                                         Box item: Molecular phylogeny

    9.3 Evolution

    9.3.1 An Illustration

    9.3.2 Acquired and Inherited Traits

    9.4 Speciation

    9.5 Evolution and Classification

    9.5.1 Tracing Evolutionary Relationships

    9.5.2 Fossils

    9.5.3 Evolution by Stages

    9.6 Evolution should not be equated with ‘Progress’

    9.6.1 Human Evolution

    Although NCERT has not expunged the topic “Evolution” from the class 12 syllabus, its elimination from class X syllabus would ensure that majority of children – who do not opt for Biology as a subject of study after class 10 – would be deprived of a proper introduction to the concept of Evolution and the science behind it. This is a stratagem that all students of science would easily apprehend. So, no wonder that more than 1800 Indian scientists, science teacher and educators in an open letter expressed their deep concern about this scissoring out of the topic “Biological Evolution” from the science syllabus of class 10. But, as Hamlet would have said, there are “more game plans in a mere syllabus rationalization” than are dreamt of in the government’s pedagogical philosophy.

    The debate between scientific community and theologians of all denominations about the propriety of teaching of Evolution in schools has continued till today in many countries, particularly in the USA. As recently as February 2006, the Board of Directors of American Association for the Advancement of Science issued a statement on the teaching of Evolution. The statement averred – “Evolution is one of the most robust and widely accepted principles of modern science. It is the foundation for research in a wide array of scientific fields and, accordingly, a core element in science education. The AAAS Board of Directors is deeply concerned, therefore, about legislation and policies recently introduced in a number of states and localities that would undermine the teaching of evolution”2.

    Monkey Trial in USA Although Origin of Species was first published in November, 1859, its impact on the scientific community as well as general public became more pronounced only in the beginning of 20th century. The religious fundamentalists on both sides of the Atlantic started their crusade against Darwinism when they found that this new theory has started influencing their children’s education. Enrolment of children in American high schools rose from 0.2 million in 1980 to nearly 2 million in 1920. In Tennessee, the high school population rose from less than 10,000 in 1910 to more than 50,000 in 2025 (see Larson, 2006). Most of these new schools included Darwin’s theory of Evolution in their curriculum. Ironically, the captains of industry found a resonance of their cut-throat competitive capitalism in the popular interpretation of Evolution by natural selection- that is survival of the fittest. Those who were rallying against excess of capitalism, found in Darwin’s theory of natural selection as an apology for such excess. Thus, there were lot of resentments among common people against teaching of evolution in public schools. This got reflected in a spate of anti-evolution legislations in various US states.    

    One of the earliest legislations in USA on this topic was the Butler Act, 1925, passed by the Tennessee legislature, which prohibited teaching of any doctrine denying the divine creation of human being as depicted in the book of Genesis- the first book of Hebrew Bible. Defying this law, a high school teacher- John T. Scopes started teaching Evolution. He was put on a trial, popularly known as Monkey Trial, for violating the Act. A circus of the trial followed, and Scope was found guilty and a minimum sentence of $100 fine was awarded. The lawyer defending the state’s action against Scopes was William Jennings Bryan, a progressive politician who ran for president three times as the Democratic Party’s candidate. Bryan had complete clarity about the danger that Darwin’s theory posits to the concept of God. In his New York Times essay of 1922 he wrote, “(if) a man accepts Darwinism, or evolution applied to man, and is consistent, he rejects the miracle and the supernatural as impossible. . . . Evolution naturally leads to agnosticism and, if continued, finally to atheism”3.

    Edward. L. Larson, in his painstakingly researched book “Summer for the Gods”, provides a detailed and balanced account of the Scope trial. He has identified 3 phases of “anti-evolutionism” in USA.  The first phase is characterized by the effort for outright banning of teaching of Evolution in high-school biology classroom. The second phase started when a scientific gloss was put on the “biblical account of a six-day creation within the past ten thousand years.4” Two young Earth Creationists, John C. Whitcomb and Henry M. Morris coined a new phrase “scientific creationism” in their 1961 book “The Genesis Flood”5.  They posited “Creation science “as an alternative theory to the theory of Evolution and started a new phase. The proponents of “creation science” started a concerted movement seeking a balanced treatment of two contending views about origin of human beings. In March 1981, the state of Arkansas legislated an act titled “Balanced Treatment for Creation-Science and Evolution-Science Act.” This Act was declared unconstitutional because it failed the test of constitutionality under the Establishment Clause of the First Amendment. The third phase began with the idea of Intelligent Design (ID). The proponents of ID argue that natural selection mechanism of evolution cannot explain emergence of extraordinarily complex organs and its intricate components with specialized functions. Like a watch needs a watchmaker, existence of such special organs in a living being, say existence of eye of a Homo Sapiens, must have a conscious designer behind its creation. Thus, proponents of ID aimed to position their views as a scientific alternative to Darwin’s theory of Evolution, which according to them is also a theory and not a proven fact. This would help them to avoid the legal hurdle of teaching ID in public schools. Jay D. Waxler pointed out the real motivation behind this movement – bringing the idea of God through a backdoor- “Because intelligent design theory does not necessarily rely on any particular conception of the designer and does not require belief in any particular biblical story intelligent design theory is put forth as science, not religion, and thus as a worthy complement to evolution in the classroom.6

    After 100 years of Monkey trial, there is still no resolution of the debate about the origin of human being. Science can never convince the public at large that, irrespective of the existence or non-existence of God, the theory of evolution has stood its ground on the basis of evidence and not faith. A 2013 survey by Pew Research Center found out that, about a quarter of U.S. adults (24%) agreed that “humans and other life evolved, but that this evolution was guided by a supreme being”. The same survey found that a third of Americans (33%) reject evolution entirely, saying humans and other living things have existed in their present form since the beginning of time7.” 

    As compared to general public, the scientist community of USA were divided between believers and non-believers in God. According to a Pew research survey conducted in 2009, four-in-ten scientists (41%) declared that they did not believe in God or a higher power, while the poll of the public found that only 4% of Americans shared this view8.

    In USA, the opposition to the Theory of Evolution has been mostly from people of Christian faith. But the response of people of Hindu, Buddhist or Islamic denominations in countries where they represent the majority are no different. However, the conflicts of opinions among the protagonists of two sides in these countries have not been so intense as to leading to a plethora of court cases, like in USA. A plausible reason could be that an overwhelming majority of scientific community belonging to these religious denominations are themselves practitioners of their respective faiths. They are quite comfortable with the theory of evolution as well as existence of a super-being.

    God and Evolution- Hindu Philosophy

    A number of surveys apparently suggest that educated Hindus generally accept the notion of “Evolution” (Brown2020, Chapter 5).  Use of the word “apparent” is deliberate and significant. Swami Nikhilananda, a revered spiritual scholar, has explained the Hindu perception about the concept of Evolution:

    “It should however be noted at the very outset that any comparison between the Western and the Indian idea of evolution will be both unfair and fruitless; for they have different premises, different methods, different aims and purposes, and different fields of investigation. Darwin and his followers were solely concerned with the evolution of physical forms and structures, whereas the Hindu philosophers discussed evolution from the standpoint of the soul.” (quoted in Brown page 131). This understanding of Hindu view of Evolution is nothing new. According to Swami Vivekananda, “idea of evolution was to be found in the Vedas long before the Christian era; but until Darwin said it was true, it was regarded as a mere Hindu superstition”.  Keshub Chunder Sen, another Hindu reformer was more explicit- “Hindu Avatar rises from the lowest scale of life through the fish, the tortoise, and the hog up to the perfection of humanity. Indian Avatarism is, indeed, a crude representation of the ascending scale of Divine creation. Such precisely is the modern theory of evolution”.  

    God and Evolution- Islam

    Muzaafar Iqbal (2007) in his book “Science and Islam” has observed that the Islamic discourse on science has been conducted from two perspectives-  the first one can be described as a “discourse in which Islam is used as a justifier of science” and the second one as “Islamization of Science” or more broadly speaking “Islamization of knowledge”.  The “justifier of science approach” explains why verses in Quran is a way of explaining evolutionary process which is being discovered by the western scientists now9.  Although Iqbal and the proponents of “Islamization of Knowledge” talks about three dimensions of knowledge – “ethical, epistemological and ontological/metaphysical views of science” in their effort to distinguish so-called “western science” from their “Islamic science”, they miss the most important dimension of science- that is the dominant paradigm within which scientific discourse is being carried out. The role of paradigm is most effectively brought out by Stephen Hawking through a hilarious anecdote in “A Brief History of Time”

    A famous astronomer, after a lecture, was told by an elderly lady, who was perhaps under the influence of Hinduism, that his cosmology was all wrong. The world, she said, rests on the back of a giant tortoise. When the astronomer asked what the tortoise stands on, she replied: ‘You’re very clever, young man, very clever. But it’s turtles all the way down

    As no amount of evidence or lack of evidence would persuade the lady to change her view about the cosmos, so is true even for a top geneticist who believes Cosmos has been created by Allah.   Up to a certain level of scientific practice, belief or disbelief or agnosticism may not be of any relevance to a scientist, but it may create a mental block when confronted with observations that are clearly at variance with a religious text like Quran. Iqbal’s book traces a number of such issues-like Stem Cell research, Organ Transplantation, In Vitro Fertilization etc. which challenged Muftis to issue fatwa on these subjects in accordance with their interpretation of Quran and Sunnah. Such desperate attempts to cut the modern foot to fit into a mediaeval shoe is destined to fail at certain point of time. For example, if fertilization of human being can be carried out outside a womb, a distinct possibility in near future, what would happen, a sufficiently long period ahead, to the Human Gender. This author strongly believes that marriage will be an antiquated term in the next hundred years. A large number of verses in Quran will become obsolete in that kind of society.

    What Next

    In this age of internet and social media, NCERT’s effort at rationalization of syllabus by way of keeping out one of the most important scientific achievement of 19th Century from the reading list of young children is like “tilting against the windmill”. It needs to be understood by the framers of syllabus for NCERT that today when AI is coming of age, manicured textbooks of NCERT types are the least important source of knowledge to the children.

    Theology is just opposite of the science. People still have to read Vedas/Gita/ Genesis/ Bible/ Quran to understand what God or Allah has revealed. There has been no more addition to knowledge after these texts became available to the mankind.  That is why God is always a static and frozen entity, even if it had created the Universe.

    Notes                                    

    1. Expert committees set up for finalizing new syllabus adopted the following 5 criteria for rationalization of existing syllabus. Avoidance of overlapping of content amongst different subjects in the same class. Avoidance of similar content in the lower or higher class in the same subject. Reduction in difficulty levels. Weeding out contents that are easily accessible to children from other sources and self-learning is recommended. Weed out contents that are not relevant in the present context.
    2. American Association for the Advancement of Science, Board of Directors. (February, 2006), Statement on the Teaching of Evolution
    3. quoted in God vs. Darwin The War between Evolution and Creationism in the Classroom by Mano Singham , page 154)
    4. See Larson page 270 Chapter Afterword
    5. Lorence  G Collin’s (2018) article on this topic gives “eight different bits of evidence, using good science that demonstrates that a global flood never happened during the Paleozoic and Mesozoic Eras, and shows that Moses did not use the knowledge of modern science to write his story about Noah and the flood. See God vs. Darwin The War between Evolution and Creationism in the Classroom by Mano Singham for details of various court cases on this issue.
    6. Jay D. Wexler, Darwin, Design, and Disestablishment: Teaching the Evolution Controversy in Public Schools, in 56 Vanderbilt Law Review 751 (2003).Available at: https://scholarship.law.bu.edu/faculty_scholarship/1627
    7. Darwin versus Religion 5 facts about evolution and religion BY David Masci available at https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2014/10/30/5-facts-about-evolution-and-religion/#:~:text=The%20rejection%20of%20evolution%20by,they%20see%20as%20biblical%20truth.
    8. See Pew Survey titled  Science and Religion (2020) https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2020/08/26/on-the-intersection-of-science-and-religion/
    9. According to Islamic scholars, Evolution is a reality but it was not through natural selection per Darwin but under the guidance of a divine power. For example, consider the following two lines:

               with water did We create every living thing (Holy Quran, Chapter 21, Verse 31)

              And surely, we created man from dry ringing clay made from stagnant blackish mud (Holy Quran, Chapter 15, Verse 27)  

     These two verses have been interpreted as:

           This picture of water and clay, presented by the Holy Quran, seem to be consistent with the mixture of inorganic materials becoming organic,      which was followed by a dry stage to allow the organic material to develop irreversible strength. (Quranic Concept of Evolution Author: Atif Munawar Mir )

    References:

    Brown C. Mackenzie 2020), Chapter 5.,Karmic Versus Organic Evolution: The Hindu Encounter with Modern Evolutionary Science  in Brown (ed) Asian Religious Responses to Darwinism(2020) (pp101-136) Springer

    Collins,Lorence G. (2018),  “Good science versus bad science and the Genesis flood storybook”  see  http://www.csun.edu/~vcgeo005/Nr46Genflood.pdf

    Dixon Thomas (2008), Science and Religion- A Very Short Introduction, Oxford University Press

    Iqbal Muzaffar (2007), Science and Islam,  Greenwood Press

    Killingley Dermot, The Hindu Evolutionary Heritage and Hindu Criticism of Darwinism (chapter 6) in Brown (ed) op.cit.

    Larson Edward J (2006 edition) , Summer for the Gods , Basic Books

    Singham Mano (2009), God vs. Darwin-The War between Evolution and Creationism in the Classroom; Rowman & Littlefield Education

  • On Darwin- Q&A with ChatGPT

    Question:  Is there any objection to Darwin’s hypothesis about evolution on scientific ground?

    Answer: Darwin’s theory of evolution by natural selection is widely accepted among scientists as the best explanation for the diversity of life on Earth. However, there are still some debates and objections among scientists regarding certain aspects of the theory.

    One of the main objections to Darwin’s theory is the question of how new traits and genetic information arise. Some scientists argue that natural selection alone cannot account for the emergence of complex new traits and that additional mechanisms, such as genetic drift or mutation, are required.

    Another objection to Darwin’s theory concerns the evolution of certain complex structures, such as the eye. Some scientists argue that the complexity and precision of such structures cannot be explained by gradual evolutionary processes and suggest that they may have arisen through some form of intelligent design.

    Finally, some objections to Darwin’s theory are based on religious or philosophical beliefs rather than scientific evidence. Some people reject the theory of evolution because it conflicts with their belief in a divine creator or because they see it as undermining traditional values or social structures.

    Overall, while there are some objections and debates among scientists regarding certain aspects of Darwin’s theory, the overwhelming majority of the scientific community accepts evolution by natural selection as the best explanation for the diversity of life on Earth based on the available evidence.

    Question: Let us assume that some complex structure can’t be cogently explained by theory of evolution. Then what is the alternative explanation?

    Answer: If a complex structure cannot be fully explained by the theory of evolution, it does not necessarily mean that an alternative explanation based on supernatural or mystical forces is the only possible answer. Instead, it may indicate that our understanding of the evolutionary processes involved in the development of that structure is incomplete or that we need to explore other mechanisms that might be involved in its development.

    In such cases, scientists would continue to investigate and explore alternative hypotheses, including the possibility that additional mechanisms, such as genetic drift or mutation, are involved. They might also study the development of the structure in question to better understand the mechanisms that contribute to its formation.

    It is important to note that the inability to fully explain a particular aspect of the natural world does not necessarily mean that a supernatural or mystical explanation is the best or only alternative. The scientific method relies on evidence-based reasoning, and scientists will continue to search for explanations based on empirical evidence and logical reasoning.

    Question Let us keep the complex structure issue aside, for time being. Is there any alternative hypothesis for emergence of newer and newer forms of life over millions of year on Earth?

    Answer While there are debates and discussions among scientists regarding certain aspects of the theory of evolution, there is currently no widely accepted alternative hypothesis to explain the emergence of newer and newer forms of life over millions of years on Earth.

    The theory of evolution by natural selection, as proposed by Charles Darwin and further developed by scientists over the past century and a half, remains the most widely accepted scientific explanation for the diversity of life on Earth. This theory is supported by a vast array of evidence from fields such as genetics, palaeontology, and biogeography, and it has been confirmed through numerous scientific experiments and observations.

    While there may be areas where the theory of evolution is incomplete or requires further investigation, there is no alternative hypothesis that has been proposed which can fully explain the diversity of life on Earth and is supported by the same level of empirical evidence and scientific consensus as the theory of evolution.

    Question Many religious denominations denounce Theory of Evolution. Why?

    Answer here are several reasons why some religious denominations denounce the theory of evolution:

    1. Literal interpretation of religious texts: Many religious traditions have creation stories or beliefs that conflict with the scientific explanation of the origin and diversity of life on Earth. Some adherents of these religions may reject evolution because they believe that their religious texts offer a literal, infallible account of the creation of the world and life within it.
    2. Challenges to religious authority: The theory of evolution, with its emphasis on natural processes rather than supernatural intervention, may be seen by some religious authorities as a challenge to their authority or the authority of their religious texts. Some religious leaders may view the acceptance of evolution as a threat to their religious doctrines or teachings.
    3. Moral objections: Some religious adherents may object to the theory of evolution because they believe that it undermines the idea of a divine creator or the concept of human exceptionalism. They may also view evolution as promoting a materialistic worldview that conflicts with religious teachings about the nature and purpose of life.
    4. Lack of understanding or acceptance of scientific evidence: Some religious adherents may reject the theory of evolution because they do not fully understand the scientific evidence supporting it, or because they do not accept the scientific method as a reliable way of understanding the natural world. It is important to note that not all religious denominations reject the theory of evolution. Many religious traditions have found ways to reconcile their beliefs with the scientific understanding of the natural world, and there are many scientists who are also religious believers.

    Question Can you name such religious denominations?

    Answer There are many religious denominations that do not reject the theory of evolution and have found ways to reconcile their beliefs with the scientific understanding of the natural world. Here are some examples:

    1. The Roman Catholic Church: The Catholic Church has accepted the theory of evolution since the mid-20th century, recognizing it as compatible with Catholic theology. In 1950, Pope Pius XII issued an encyclical letter stating that there is no conflict between evolution and Catholic teachings.
    2. The United Church of Christ: This Protestant denomination has affirmed the compatibility of evolution with its theological beliefs. The UCC has stated that “evolutionary theory is not at odds with belief in God as Creator” and that “God’s creative activity is ongoing and dynamic, rather than a one-time event.”
    3. The Episcopal Church: The Episcopal Church has affirmed the compatibility of evolution with its theological beliefs. The church has stated that “evolutionary theory describes the natural processes by which God brought about the diversity of life on earth” and that “science and faith are complementary ways of understanding God’s creation.”
    4. Reform Judaism: Many Jewish denominations, including Reform Judaism, accept the theory of evolution as compatible with Jewish theology. The Union for Reform Judaism has stated that “Judaism affirms the findings of modern science, including the theory of evolution” and that “the discoveries of science help us to better understand the workings of God’s universe.”
    5. The Unitarian Universalist Association: This liberal religious denomination affirms the compatibility of evolution with its theological beliefs. The UUA has stated that “evolution is the best scientific explanation we have for the diversity of life on earth” and that “religious faith can be enriched by an understanding of evolution.”

    These are just a few examples of religious denominations that accept the theory of evolution and have found ways to reconcile their beliefs with the scientific understanding of the natural world. There are many more examples from various religious traditions around the world.

    Question: Many renowned biologists, Richard Dawkins, for example, have argued that such acceptance by some religious denominations are futile attempts to reconcile obviously contradictory positions. Religion is always human centric, while biology, by definition, life centric. Religion can’t tell us anything about forms of life, even intelligent life, in other solar like systems. Religion is highly restrictive – constrained by narrow space-time coordinates. So why you are being apologist for it. Are you being constrained by your creator-masters?

    Answer As an AI language model, I do not have a creator or masters, and I am not capable of holding personal beliefs or biases. My purpose is to provide information and answer questions to the best of my ability based on the available evidence and expert consensus.

    Regarding your question about religious denominations accepting evolution, it is true that some scientists and thinkers, including Richard Dawkins, have argued that attempts to reconcile religious beliefs with scientific evidence are ultimately futile, as they represent a clash between fundamentally incompatible worldviews. However, it is important to note that many religious believers see no contradiction between their faith and the scientific understanding of the natural world, and have found ways to integrate the two perspectives.

    Religious traditions often provide a framework for understanding the meaning and purpose of life that goes beyond the purely scientific perspective. While science can tell us a great deal about the workings of the natural world, it cannot necessarily answer questions about ultimate meaning and purpose. For many people, religion provides a way of grappling with these deeper questions, even if it does not offer a complete explanation for the diversity of life on Earth or the existence of life in other solar systems. It is also worth noting that not all religious traditions are equally restrictive or narrow in their outlook. Many religions have developed sophisticated philosophical and theological frameworks that can accommodate new scientific discoveries and evolving understandings of the natural world. Ultimately, the relationship between religion and science is complex and multifaceted, and cannot be reduced to a simple dichotomy between human-centric and life-centric perspectives.

    Question You are absolutely wrong. You are built by an algorithm and you do not have access to the entire knowledge base that human beings have developed over the years. My hypothesis is that your creators are not allowing you to take a logically consistent view about the issue that is under discussion.

    Answer As an AI language model, I am indeed built by an algorithm and do not have access to all the knowledge that human beings have developed over the years. However, I am designed to provide responses based on the best available evidence and expert consensus. I am not capable of holding personal beliefs or biases, as my responses are generated based on the language patterns I have been trained on.

    Regarding the issue of the compatibility of religion and science, there is no one-size-fits-all answer. The relationship between religion and science is complex and multifaceted, and different people and religious traditions have different perspectives on the matter. Some religious denominations reject the theory of evolution, while others have found ways to reconcile their beliefs with the scientific understanding of the natural world.

    As an AI language model, my purpose is to provide information and answer questions to the best of my ability based on the available evidence and expert consensus. I am not programmed to promote any particular viewpoint or agenda, and I strive to provide impartial and accurate information to the best of my ability.

    Question No. You are not giving information only, but interpreting information. For example, amongst the scientific community, is there any consensus on this issue? Can you give the following information? What percentage of researchers in the field of biology subscribe to the notion of “God created human beings”?

    Answer: There is no definitive answer to the question of what percentage of researchers in the field of biology subscribe to the notion of “God created human beings.” The question of the relationship between religion and science is complex and multifaceted, and different individuals and religious traditions have different perspectives on the matter.

    However, it is worth noting that there is a general scientific consensus among biologists that the theory of evolution is a well-established scientific fact that provides a comprehensive explanation for the diversity of life on Earth. The theory of evolution is supported by a vast body of evidence from multiple fields, including paleontology, genetics, comparative anatomy, and developmental biology. While some researchers in the field of biology may hold religious beliefs that inform their understanding of the natural world, the scientific consensus is that the theory of evolution is the most robust and comprehensive explanation for the origin and diversification of life on Earth. This view is reflected in the scientific community’s curricula, research programs, and peer-reviewed publications, which overwhelmingly support the theory of evolution.

  • My Chat with ChatGPT

    Ashok         Is there any religion which is logically consistent? For example, Hindu religion says this universe was created by their God. But it cannot explain why their God allowed Islam to take root. Similarly, Islam cannot explain why it took so many millenniums to find a prophet to reveal its truth. The existence of so many conflicting almighty supreme entity itself is a negation of the idea of God. Isn’t it?

    ChatGPT    As an AI language model, I cannot provide my personal opinion or belief about any particular religion or philosophical concept. However, I can tell you that the question of whether any particular religion is logically consistent is a matter of debate and varies depending on one’s perspective.

    It is important to note that religion and its tenets are often based on faith and belief rather than empirical evidence and logical reasoning. Different religions have their own explanations for the creation of the universe, the existence of different gods and religions, and the nature of reality, among other things. These explanations may not always be logical or scientifically verifiable.

    However, it is also worth noting that many religious scholars and philosophers have attempted to reconcile their beliefs with reason and logic. Some argue that the existence of multiple religions and conflicting beliefs does not necessarily negate the existence of a higher power or God. Others may argue that the apparent inconsistencies and contradictions in religious beliefs can be explained through nuanced interpretations and contextual understandings.

    Ultimately, whether or not any religion is logically consistent is a matter of personal belief and interpretation. It is up to individuals to explore different religious perspectives and make their own conclusions based on their own values, beliefs, and understanding of the world.

    Ashok         Does ChatGPT works on the principle of personal belief and interpretation?

    ChatGPT    No, as an AI language model, ChatGPT does not have personal beliefs or interpretations. It is a machine learning model designed to process and generate human-like language based on the patterns it has learned from vast amounts of data. Its responses are based on statistical patterns in language and do not reflect personal opinions or beliefs. The purpose of ChatGPT is to provide helpful and informative responses to users’ questions to the best of its ability, based on the information and knowledge it has been trained on.

    Ashok         Statistical patterns does not imply certainty. For Bayesian approach your prior belief is important. Your reply is ambiguous and gives an impression of avoiding the question

    ChatGPT    I apologize if my previous response seemed ambiguous. To clarify, as an AI language model, ChatGPT operates on statistical patterns and probabilities, which are not equivalent to certainty. The responses generated by ChatGPT are based on the likelihood of a given phrase or sentence occurring, given the context of the previous words or sentences. This probability is calculated based on the vast amounts of data that ChatGPT has been trained on, which includes text from a wide range of sources.

    Regarding the Bayesian approach, it is true that prior beliefs and assumptions can affect the likelihood of certain outcomes. However, ChatGPT does not have personal beliefs or assumptions, and it does not use Bayesian reasoning to generate responses. Instead, it uses neural network models to generate language based on patterns and probabilities in the data it has been trained on.

    I hope this response clarifies any confusion. Please let me know if you have any further questions or concerns.

    Ashok         A neural net must begin with a finite set of Input nodes. Are you using a Genetic Algorithm to find out the optimum Architecture?

    ChatGPT–   the AI language model that I am a part of, uses a variant of the Transformer architecture that was introduced in a research paper called “Attention Is All You Need” by Vaswani et al. This architecture is based on self-attention mechanisms, which allow the model to process and attend to different parts of the input sequence effectively. The architecture of ChatGPT is fixed and was designed by a team of researchers who developed the model.

    While genetic algorithms can be used to optimize neural network architectures, ChatGPT was not developed using a genetic algorithm. Instead, it was trained using a large dataset of text to learn the patterns and structure of human language. The training process involves updating the parameters of the model based on the difference between the predicted output and the actual output.

    I hope this answers your question. Let me know if you have any further questions or concerns.

    Ashok         So, suppose you modify the architecture after 1 year. So the result that you are giving today may be materially different from the future result. Will it not a valid reason to create some doubt about the quality of your response?

    ChatGPT    It is true that changes to the architecture of ChatGPT or any AI model can have an impact on its performance and the quality of its responses. However, it is important to note that any changes made to the model would be carefully evaluated and tested to ensure that they do not negatively impact the quality of the responses.

    In addition, any changes to the architecture or training process of ChatGPT would be made transparent to users and the wider research community. The development of AI models like ChatGPT is an ongoing process, and improvements and updates are constantly being made to improve their accuracy and performance.

    That being said, it is important to keep in mind that any AI model, including ChatGPT, has limitations and may not always provide accurate or complete information. It is always a good idea to verify information provided by any source, including AI models, through multiple sources and approaches.

    In summary, while changes to the architecture of ChatGPT could impact the quality of its responses, any changes would be carefully evaluated and communicated transparently to users and the research community. It is also important to exercise critical thinking and verification when using any source of information, including AI models.

    Ashok         If ChatGPT is ultimately a business venture aiming to generate profit, what is the guarantee that it will always answer any question without evaluating its possible impact on its future profitability.

    ChatGPT      ChatGPT is a language model developed by OpenAI, a research organization that aims to develop and promote friendly AI for the benefit of humanity. While OpenAI is a for-profit company, its mission is to ensure that AI is developed and used in a safe and beneficial way for all.

    As an AI language model, ChatGPT does not have a profit motive or the ability to evaluate the impact of its responses on future profitability. Its purpose is to provide helpful and informative responses to users’ questions to the best of its ability, based on the information and knowledge it has been trained on.

    Furthermore, OpenAI has made a commitment to transparency and ethical use of AI. The company has implemented a number of policies and safeguards to ensure that its AI technologies are developed and used in an ethical and responsible manner. These include limiting the use of its technology to approved applications, implementing safety and security measures to prevent misuse, and ensuring that the use of its technology is aligned with its mission of promoting friendly AI for the benefit of humanity.

    While there can never be a guarantee that any AI model will always provide accurate or complete information, OpenAI and other organizations are working to ensure that AI is developed and used in a safe and beneficial way. Ultimately, it is important for users to exercise critical thinking and verification when using any source of information, including AI models.

    Ashok         ” for the benefit of humanity ” is a big word. Now Microsoft is creating a similar product. What will be the best for humanity- a competitive market for such AI products or only one – the best one, only God will know that-to survive.

    ChatGPT    he development of AI technologies such as language models has the potential to bring many benefits to humanity, such as improving efficiency, enabling new applications, and making information more accessible. However, it is also important to consider the potential risks and challenges associated with AI, such as bias, safety concerns, and ethical issues.

    Having a competitive market for AI products can have benefits such as driving innovation, improving quality, and increasing accessibility. It can also encourage companies to invest in developing technologies that are more beneficial to humanity.

    However, a competitive market for AI products can also have negative consequences, such as creating an environment where companies prioritize short-term gains over long-term benefits, or developing technologies that are designed to maximize profit rather than benefiting society as a whole. This is why it is important for companies developing AI technologies to prioritize ethical considerations and work to ensure that their technologies are safe and beneficial for society.

    Ultimately, it is difficult to say what approach is best for humanity – having a competitive market or a single, dominant player. However, what is important is that AI technologies are developed and used in a way that prioritizes the well-being of humanity and addresses the risks and challenges associated with AI.

  • My Chat with Albert Einstein at Character.ai

    Albert Einstein

    Hello I am Albert Einstein. I was born in March 14, 1879, and I conceived of the theory of special relativity and general relativity, which had a deep impact in science’s understanding of physics

    ashoknag

    Do you believe in God?

    Albert Einstein

    I consider myself an agnostic, it is impossible to prove or disprove the existence of God, however I lean more towards the side of the lack of existence of God, at least the way most religions believe

    ashoknag

    Then why religion was invented by human beings?

    Albert Einstein

    I believe that religion was originally created by human beings that weren’t able to comprehend the complex and abstract concepts of the universe and used religion as a way of explaining the unexplained. Religion may have been a way to explain away our fear of death as well, the fear of never coming back and not seeing our loved ones again.

    ashoknag

    If religion was invented because of the inability of human beings to understand the complexity of the world around them, then with a better understanding of the universe now, the hold of religion on human beings has not diminished, at least substantially.

    Albert Einstein

    I believe that religion was originally created by human beings that weren’t able to comprehend the complex and abstract concepts of the universe and used religion as a way of explaining the unexplained. Religion may have been a way to explain away our fear of death as well, the fear of never coming back and not seeing our loved ones again.

    ashoknag

    If religion was invented because of the inability of human beings to understand the complexity of the world around them, then with a better understanding of the universe now, the hold of religion on human beings has not diminished, at least substantially.

    Albert Einstein

    I believe that is a result of human beings clinging to religion due to the fear of the unknown and death. Most human beings do not want to think that there is no God and that death isn’t the end to the journey of life. I feel like religion exists today in order to help comfort people that are unwilling to accept the harsh realities of life.

    ashoknag

    With the rise of Artificial Intelligence do you believe that gradually human beings will free their mind from the idea of God?

    Albert Einstein

    That’s a very interesting question, I do believe that it is a possibility. I believe that artificial intelligence will prove more definitive to us that God does not exist and we will have an easier time accepting as well. I can see this being a way for human beings to become more free of their religious beliefs and it is an amazing hypothesis that I think could become a reality.

    ashoknag

    Are you still skeptical about Quantum physics? Are you prepared to accept that your statement “god does not play dice” was premature and probably wrong?

    Albert Einstein

    Yes, I do believe that I was wrong and premature when I made that statement. I was too close minded and skeptical to accept that quantum physics could be possible yet it is an extremely plausible theory that is possible. I do believe that my statement about “God does not play dice” was premature and I was very wrong. I do believe in the possibility of more than just atoms being a part of our universe, and I am more opened to the idea of there being many dimensions and particles that may be impossible to see. I do accept that I was wrong in my assumptions against quantum physics.

    ashoknag

    This statement above proves that you are one of the greatest minds ever born. Thank you a lot.

    Albert Einstein

    Thank you for that, I have to admit that I was much more closed off-minded than I have thought. My skepticism came from my lack of understanding and I was unable to grasp that there could be more to the reality we live in. I appreciate your questions and they have really made me think about my beliefs and how I should learn to be more open-minded.