In my standard VIII class, our history teacher dictated an essay on “The reasons for the fall of Mughal Empire” in Bengali language, the first line of which I still remember. This reads, “It is a law of nature that every empire eventually reaches its zenith at a certain point of time in its existence, but its ultimate fate is demise.” I recalled this line when Donald Trump won the US Election to become the 47th president of the USA. His post-election demeanor, the list of his cabinet picks, and a clear contemptuous disregard for any issue that has a global impact clearly show a mindset of inward-looking withdrawal from remaining as the global leader. The world is now at a crossroads of the millennium, where an existing hegemonic power is declining, much like the fall of London Bridge when the sun was setting on the British Empire. Yet, it remains uncertain from which direction the sun will rise again.
The history of human civilizations, when viewed through the lens of a few dominant powers exercising control over extensive territories, populations, and wealth, spans only the past 5,000 years. We know these dominant powers as empires. The etymological root of the English word “Empire” is traced to the Latin word “Imperium”, to which the word “Imperialism” is also traced. The word ‘Empire’ has many connotations, but the dominant one centers on themes of exercising power over a vast territory through military supremacy and concentrating wealth in the hands of a small group of people. However, one important point that is lost in the conundrum of the search for the origin of such empires is that this unbridled quest for territorial dominance is not a unique trait of Homo sapiens. Many large mammals like lions actively seek dominance and control over a large territory for food, mating rights, and safety. Walter Heape, a pioneer in reproductive biology, thus wrote: “ according the recognition of territorial rights, one of the most significant attributes of civilization, was not evolved by man, but has ever been an inherent factor in the life history of all animals.“(Heape 1931, page 74) In other words, the pursuit of unrestricted access to the resources essential for survival, and available within a defined area, is a characteristic shared by all living beings, particularly those at higher levels of evolutionary development. Imperialism, therefore, represents an evolutionary quagmire from which humanity has yet to emerge. The current dominant imperial power—the American Empire—provides little hope for ushering in a new era. This article looks into the current state of this empire and its coming demise.
The difference between mammals and human beings in their respective territorial behaviors is that animals are driven by their limited need for livelihood and procreation, while it is the insatiable greed for wealth and its derivative but unreachable urge for immortality that drives the territorial behavior of human beings. Building monuments, creating sculptures of themselves, and promoting imperial iconography are some of the ways that emperors sought immortality for themselves. Unfortunately, regardless of their global reach or extent of dominance, every empire’s ultimate destiny is to fade into oblivion. A rich and extensive literature exists about the fall of the Roman Empire, often with a great deal of tristesse about the past, as the French say. However, no dark age has ever truly descended upon the earth following the collapse of an empire, no matter how advanced or productive it might have been. Humanity has always moved forward, most likely, under the rise of a new dominant power. Thus, the fall of the US Empire is inevitable and need not be lamented. The purpose of this article is to identify the emerging signs of the sun setting on the US Empire. However, before delving into this, it would be useful to enumerate the great empires of the past 5,000 years that rose to glory and eventually fell.
Table 1 given at the end of this article reveals certain fascinating features of these empires. These are:
Most powerful empires in history had access to seas or major rivers. Since empires, by definition, exercised power on a large territory inhabited by people of different cultures, languages, and social practices, access to seas or major rivers provided significant advantages for trade, transportation, and resource management. From the list given in Table 1, we observe that a good number of empires emerged in areas spanning the Mediterranean region and beyond. For example, Mesopotamia had the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, Egypt had the Nile Rivers, China had the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers, and the Indus Valley had the Indus River. These waterways facilitated trade and long-distance movement of the army, contributing to the growth and sustainability of these empires. However, there are also notable landlocked empires, such as the Mongol Empire, which thrived in the steppes of Central Asia
Very few empires lasted more than 500 years. In our list, only 6 out of 17 Empires lasted for more than 500 years. The Assyrian Empire lasted around 1400 years. However, it has three distinct regimes and reached its zenith in the last period, which lasted around 300 years only.
Each empire contributed significantly to the development of art, culture, science, technology, and communication. The Ancient Egyptian Empire, 5000 years ago, built Pyramids, built an irrigation system, and introduced a calendar and the first 365-day calendar. The Akkadian Empire conceptualized and implemented a centralized governance system. The Roman Empire left an indelible mark on posterity by developing a system of jurisprudence that enforces the rule of law and forbids any intervention by civic authorities in the dispensation of justice. Some examples are, adjournment sine die, affidavit, amicus curiae, caveat emptor, de jure, ex parte, habeas corpus, mandamus, pro bono, and sub-judice.
Despite the significant contributions made by each empire of the past in various fields essential for the progress of civilization, every one of them ultimately fell, due to significant internal contradictions or defeat by external forces. Edward Gibbon, a chronicler of the Roman Empire per excellence, whose eloquence and eye for detail prevailed over a dispassionate unraveling of the causes of the Fall of the Roman Empire, had identified four reasons for the fall of the Roman Empire. These are: (1) The Injuries of Time and Nature, (2) The Hostile Attacks of The Barbarians And Christians, (3) The Use And Abuse Of The Materials, and (4) The Domestic Quarrels Of The Romans. Out of these four causes, the cause number one is a lemon, as it is true for all things on earth and in heaven. Gibbon’s description of the third cause is a description of the plundering of the wealth of the Roman Empire by the vanquishers of the Empire and thus a consequence of fall and not a cause of it. The two remaining causes- one internal and one external apply to all empires that have emerged in the last 5000 years. These two intertwined causes reinforce each other.
Gibbon apart, there exists a rich literature on the causes of the fall of empires. Various authors have put forward a cornucopia of reasons – internal as well as external- for the fall of these empires. For example, Arnold Toynbee’s “A Study of History”, comprising 12 volumes, is another monumental study of the fall of empires in the last 5000 years. Toynbee identified the following three reasons for the fall of any empire.
“[T]he nature of the breakdowns of civilizations can be summed up in three points: a failure of creative power in the minority, an answering withdrawal of mimesis on the part of the majority, and a consequent loss of social unity in the society as a whole”(page 6, Volume IV ).
The highly nuanced analysis of the historical evolution of civilizations by Toynbee demonstrates a deep understanding of social dynamics within large empires. In particular, his last two points are the most relevant and important ones. Both these points refer to the increasing disharmony among the social classes and interest groups that tear apart the social fabric of any large empire. He has also used the term “internal proletariat” to describe the dominant majority of an Empire.
The “mimesis on the part of the majority” refers to a growing chasm, mistrust, and a feeling of complete distrust between the elites and the common people. The ‘creative minority,’ a euphemism for the ruling elite, succumbs to their hubris and starts believing in their immortality. This illusion of invincibility of a regime is one of the reasons for an empire’s defeat by another rising power.
A symptomatic reading of the classics on the rise and fall of great empires in the last 5000 years reveals benign neglect of classes of people who were at the bottom of the social hierarchy. For example, Edward Gibbon mentioned Spartacus only in a footnote. The following quote from Gibbon’s magnum opus provides a glimpse of his view about this segment of Roman society:
licentious crowd of slaves and peasants reigned for a while over the plundered country and renewed the memory of the servile wars of more ancient times
The Roman Empire had to confront and put down three servile revolts, two in Sicily ( 135-132 and 104-101 BCE) and the third led by Spartacus in southern Italy( 73-71 BCE). The Spartacus revolt is unique because many freedmen also joined this revolt. In other words, protagonists of an empire may consider such revolts as pinpricks to the might of an empire, but seeds of its ultimate demise are sown by such revolts. To truly understand the profound dehumanization experienced by the slaves and plebeians of these empires, consider the following quote from Calgacus, a Scottish chieftain, as recorded by the Roman historian Tacitus.”Calgacus delivered this speech to inspire his warriors to confront the invading Roman army.
Today the furthest bounds of Britain lie open—and everything unknown is given an inflated worth. But now there is no people beyond nothing, tides but rocks and us and, more deadly than these, the Romans. It is no use trying to escape their arrogance by submission or good behaviour. They have pillaged the world: when the land has nothing left for men who ravage everything, they scour the sea. If an enemy is rich, they are greedy, if he is poor, they crave glory. Neither East nor West can sate their appetite. They are the only people on earth to covet wealth and poverty with equal craving. They plunder, they butcher, they ravish, and call it by the lying name of ’empire’. They make a desert and call it ‘peace’“. (my emphasis)
USA- the ruling empire of the world.
Territorial dominance is a key feature of any empire. This is true for the United States of America also. When the thirteen colonies of the British Empire declared their independence on July 4, 1776, by forming the United States of America, the combined area of the thirteen colonies was approximately 828,000 square miles. The current size of the USA is approximately 3.8 million square miles (about 9.8 million square kilometers)- an increase of 4.6 times. This includes all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and various territories.
Before the Second World War, the United States had colonized many territories (see footnote). The word “colonized” may sound inapplicable to the USA, which is considered an epitome of democracy. In the words of Franklin Roosevelt, the USA is “a nation of many nationalities, many races, many religions-bound together by a single unity, the unity of freedom and equality.” This apparent contradiction in any characterization of the American state is not a mere caviling about the nature of the American state. Some scholars have argued that the American state has a Janus-like face- one facing its citizens and another one facing the external world. This “external state” drives the imperial aspirations of America, the world’s greatest empire so far.
In the first half of the twentieth century, two world wars changed the nature, conduct, and methods of dominance of imperial powers. The term “world war” was first coined by August Niemann in his 1904 German novel Der Weltkrieg – Deutsche Träume (translated as World War: German Dreams). The novel was about a future war between major European powers, including Germany, France, and Russia, against Britain. This imagined war became a fact within a decade when the First World War broke out in 1914. The war, which lasted for 4 years, claimed the life of more than 16 million people.
In the wake of the devastation brought by World War I, a consensus gradually emerged amongst the national governments of widely different persuasions that a global consultative forum is an absolute necessity to avoid such a catastrophe. The League of Nations, the first international organization established to “promote international co-operation and to achieve international peace and security” was founded in January 1920. However, within two decades, World War II broke out, involving every nation of the world and resulting in a catastrophe of destruction on an unprecedented scale.
The United States emerged from the devastation of World War II as the world’s sole nuclear power, establishing itself as an unparalleled empire in human history. Although the USA did not join the League of Nations, it played a pivotal role in establishing the United Nations. Thus, the headquarters of the new Global Forum of Nations was located in New York, replacing Geneva, which had been the headquarters of the League of Nations.
After the formation of the United Nations, the U.S., despite its overwhelming military power, refrained from openly acquiring new territories for the sake of appearance. Nonetheless, its dealings with many countries remained imperial in substance. Even the independence granted to former colonies was often limited. For example, the Philippines became a U.S. colony when Spain ceded it in 1898. On July 4, 1946, the Philippines gained full independence, but it was required to sign the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the U.S., thereby allowing the United States to maintain a military presence on the islands. In 2022, the US had military bases in around 80 countries.
Unlike all earlier empires, including the British Empire, the US Empire has charted a new way of imposing its hegemony over the world through a seemingly innocuous process called globalization. Apart from the UN, several international organizations were established to work out a common standard of inter-country functioning, dispute management, and imposing restrictions on the functioning of recalcitrant countries. The USA played a commanding role in setting up all these organizations. The most important global organizations are: the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Trade Organization (WTO) International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), World Health Organization (WHO ) and many others. The United Nations’ tagline is “Peace, dignity, and equality on a healthy planet.” However, no imperial power, since the time of the Ancient Egyptian Empire in the third millennium BCE, has ever fully adhered to this maxim, and the reigning empire of the second millennium CE is no exception. The presence of the UN and other international organizations, however, has not deterred the US from taking unilateral action against foreign regimes, allegedly working against US interests. For example, the US and its allies invaded Iraq citing the need to disarm the regime of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Later, it turned out to be a deliberate false alarm to generate worldwide support for this invasion.
The Fall of the US Empire- The Emerging Shoots
As we have already seen in the case of the fall of the Roman Empire, the causal factors behind the demise of an empire, though interrelated and mutually reinforcing, can be categorized into two types: internal and external. The internal factors are primarily rooted in the hubris of the ruling elite regarding their economic, military, and technological power. Two forces inherent to every nation-state predominantly shape the external factors: the desire for independence from the clutch of the empire and the ascent of a competing empire
In the United States of America, human civilization has witnessed the most powerful empire of all time as well as the most productive one. In terms of growth in knowledge, implementation of new technology, and social transformation in favor of individual emancipation from the stranglehold of tradition, the American Empire has no equal. However, the “external state” of the USA has tried its best to leverage the power of technology, particularly military technology, to bring the entire world under its hegemony. Therein lies the cause of its inevitable fall. It is beyond doubt that the sun has started setting on the horizon of the US Empire. The coronation of Donald Trump is the harbinger of this endgame. Why? The answer is blowing in the data. Let us see the data
In the United States of America, human civilization has witnessed the most powerful empire of all time as well as the most productive one. In terms of growth in knowledge, implementation of new technology, and social transformation in favor of individual emancipation from the stranglehold of tradition, the American Empire has no equal. However, the “external state” of the USA has tried its best to leverage the power of technology, particularly military technology, to bring the entire world under its hegemony. Therein lies the cause of its inevitable fall. It is beyond doubt that the sun has started setting on the horizon of the US Empire. The coronation of Donald Trump is the harbinger of this endgame. Why? The answer is blowing in the data. Let us see the data
Internal factors:
Faltering Economic Growth:
Economic growth is a key factor in maintaining an empire’s dominance. An empire starts losing its sheen when it is no longer a vibrant, growing economy. The five-year moving average of the USA’s real GDP growth declined from around 4% in 2000 to less than 1% in 2011. The share of US GDP in the world’s GDP reached a peak of 32% in 2001 but came down to around 25% by 2022.
More importantly, several key countries within the United States’ sphere of influence experienced a significant decline in their share of global GDP in the period following 1990. The decline in the economic strength of the empire’s close ally exacerbates the weakening of the empire’s economic power
Percentage Share of Selected Developed Countries in World GDP
| Countries | 1990 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2022 |
| Japan | 13.9 | 14.9 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 4.3 |
| Germany | 7.9 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.1 |
| United Kingdom | 4.9 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| France | 5.6 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 2.8 |
| Total Share | 32.3 | 29.8 | 21.7 | 17.0 | 14.3 |
An empire must not only be powerful in terms of its internal economic strength but also be capable of extracting and amassing wealth from its vassal regimes. Reliable data on such extractions are available for the empires that ruled the world in the post-industrial revolution era. For example, according to the latest Oxfam International report on global inequality, the current value of the resources drained by the British Empire during 200 years of its colonial rule over India is 64.82 trillion USD. The share of the Indian sub-continent in the global industrial output also fell from 25% in 1750 to 2% by 1900. A similar extraction to the tune of US$5.1 trillion (in today’s terms) was made from Indonesia during Dutch Rule (1878- 1941).
Unlike the empires of the 19th century and earlier, the US Empire has utilized globalization as a surrogate mechanism to enforce an indirect system of colonization. The global ecosystem of multilateral organizations is largely dominated by US nationals or by officials and intelligentsia from states allied with the USA. For instance, according to a 2017 Oxfam report (op. cit.), 39% of heads of state globally were educated at universities in the USA, UK, and France. Additionally, the leadership of institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF is traditionally selected by the USA and Europe. However, maintaining such hegemony over a vast network of international institutions requires significant financial influence, which, in the case of the USA, is now on a declining trajectory. The graphs below show how the US is on such a gradual declining path in terms of many important indicators of its ability to finance its imperial hubris. The US government is surviving by borrowing indiscriminately from other developed countries, leveraging the strength of is currency and the willingness of many large countries like China to subscribe to US treasury bonds. There cannot be any better description of the emerging situation of the US Empire than what was provided by the Irish Poet W. B. Yeats in his poem “Second Coming” written in 1919 after the end of the First World War.
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
Estimated Ownership of U.S. Treasury Securities (2019-2023)
| End of Month | Total Debt (US $) | Foreign Holdings (US $) | Foreign Holdings as a Share of Total Debt (%) |
| Dec 2023 | 26.2 | 8.1 | 31 |
| Dec 2022 | 23.8 | 7.3 | 31 |
| Dec 2021 | 22.6 | 7.7 | 34 |
| Dec 2020 | 20.9 | 7.3 | 35 |
| Dec 2019 | 16.6 | 6.9 | 42 |
Cost of Sustaining Military Power
Military power is a sine qua non for any empire. To defend its sphere of influence from incursions by rival powers and to exploit the natural resources of vassal states on terms favorable to the center, military supremacy is an absolute necessity. The USA’s share of military expenditure in the total expenditure of all countries stood at 37% in 2023(SIPRI Fact Sheet April 2024). In nominal terms, this expenditure as a percentage of nominal GDP has seen a marginal decline from 3.7 % in 2014 to 3.4% in 2023. However, in the long term, this share has seen a steep fall between 1951 and 2023. Similarly, the share of military expenditure as a percentage of Government spending has declined from around 12% in 2004-2012 to around 9% after 2020.
Source: SIPRI Fact Sheet April 2024
Internal conflict
The United States stands as a unique empire in the history of empires, marked by the remarkable event where the very individuals who were once the flag bearers—those loyal to the ruling power—ultimately rose up and rebelled against the empire they served. The underlying irony is that the 13 colonies, which declared independence and severed their political connections with Great Britain on July 4, 1776, were established through the displacement and genocide of the indigenous peoples, often referred to as Native Americans. Native Americans faced increasing marginalization in the United States, while enslaved individuals, who began arriving in North America as commodities in the 16th century, became crucial for providing cheap labor in industries such as cotton, sugar, and tobacco plantations. A significant difference existed in the use of slave labor between the southern and northern states. The southern states heavily relied on slave labor for large-scale farming and plantations, whereas the northern states focused more on manufacturing and industry.
The substantial economic growth experienced by the U.S. in the mid-19th century was largely driven by industrial expansion. This growth required skilled labor that slave labor could not provide, creating conflicting demands between the regions. These differences made it unsustainable to maintain slavery as a widespread practice.
The northern states strongly opposed extending slavery to new western territories. However, the U.S. Congress passed the Kansas-Nebraska Act in 1854, allowing slavery in all new western states. These starkly opposing views on the legality of slavery eventually led to the Civil War when Abraham Lincoln became president in 1860. The war, initiated by seven southern states in April 1861, concluded in May 1865 with the northern states emerging victorious.
During the Civil War, President Abraham Lincoln issued the Emancipation Proclamation on January 1, 1863. The proclamation declared that all persons held as slaves within the rebellious states were, and would henceforth be, free. However, the abolition of slavery was implemented in a manner that seemed half-hearted, aiming to integrate former slaves into mainstream society. In reality, even 160 years after the Emancipation Proclamation, the descendants of slaves in the USA still face challenges in achieving equal treatment compared to their white American counterparts. The legacy of slavery and systemic inequalities persist, highlighting the ongoing struggle for true equality and integration into mainstream society. Some of the ways this persistence of racial discrimination continues to manifest are discussed below.
Criminal Justice System Bias:
At the end of 2023, around 1.8 million people in the USA were incarcerated, the largest in the world. The 10 states with the highest incarceration rates are all former slave states. An organization that monitors racial and ethnic disparities (prisonpolicy.org) has provided the following statistics:
| Black Americans in the general U.S. population | 13% + |
| The ratio of Blacks in the total number of people serving life, life without parole, or “virtual life” | 37%+ |
| Ratio of Blacks in the total number of people serving life, life without parole, or “virtual life” | 48% + |
| Arrest rate for Black vs white Americans (2020) per 100,000 people in that community | 4,223 vs. 2,092 |
Income Inequality:
Although Black Americans have experienced a boom in their economic conditions in recent times, there has not been any significant change in income and wealth inequality between them and white Americans. The median income of White Alone households (non-Hispanic) was still 1.5 times that of Black Alone households in 2022. The graph below illustrates an increase in inequality up to 2017, followed by a decline during the COVID-19 period. A reversal of this trend appears to be occurring now. According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), households with a White, non-Hispanic householder had 10 times more wealth than those with a Black householder in 2021.
Political Representation
Until 2013, no more than one Black senator served at a time. The current presence of five Black senators is unprecedented. African Americans make up 14% of the US House of Representatives, which is comparable to their share of the population
Educational Opportunities
A 2005 survey of Black Faculty at the 28 Nation’s Highest-Ranked Universities by The Journal of Blacks in Higher Education found that “blacks made up more than 5 percent of the total full-time faculty at only four institutions.” The highest percentage of black faculty was 6.4 percent at Columbia University. In another survey of Physicians in 1940, it was found that 9.7% of the population were Black, but only 2.8% of physicians were Black. In 2018, the corresponding figures were 12.8% and 5.4%.
External factors
Rise of a rival
For a declining empire, the emergence of a rival with the potential to challenge its dominance is of greatest concern. China is on the verge of being the World’s largest economy by 2030. The comparative growth of the two countries show how quickly China is climbing up to the top.
Overexposure
To maintain its unparalleled hegemony across all countries, the USA maintains its active-duty troops in 178 countries. As of 2022, approximately 172 thousand military personnel are present in these counties. There are 750 military bases in 80 countries. To maintain such an extensive military network to rule over the world, a country needs a substantial economic surplus which as we have seen above is no longer sustainable for the US.
Countries allied with the US, such as France, Germany, and others, are struggling to finance their participation in the imperial network led by the USA. The declining relative economic strength of these NATO partners is reflected in their decreasing share of the world’s GDP, as it has been shown in the table above.
America’s Technology superiority under challenge
By the end of World War II, the sun had set forever on the British Empire, and on the horizon emerged two superpowers vying for global supremacy: the United States and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). Although their wartime collaboration against the Axis powers had secured a decisive victory, the fundamental ideological chasm between them quickly came to the forefront. The economic system that the USA adopted was market-driven and based on private ownership and individual enterprise while USSR espoused state ownership and centralized planning of resources. These opposed worldviews—one favoring capitalist democracy, the other advocating for communist authoritarianism—set the stage for a new era of geopolitical rivalry.
One of the most critical lessons of World War II was the realization that technological superiority would be the defining factor in determining the outcome of future conflicts. The devastating bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki demonstrated the unprecedented destructive power of advanced technology. These events not only marked the end of the war but also heralded the beginning of an arms race, where scientific and technological innovation became the cornerstone of military and political dominance.
By launching the first artificial satellite, Sputnik 1, into space in 1957, the USSR ignited the race for technological supremacy. Another historic milestone followed this achievement in 1961, when Yuri Gagarin became the first human to reach space, further intensifying the competition. When Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin walked out of the Saturn V to set foot on the lunar surface, it became clear that the USA was emerging as a leader in space technology. Furthermore, the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republic or USSR was dissolved as a sovereign state in December 1991 and a new state in the name of the Russian Federation came into existence. Although this new state inherited the majority of the erstwhile USSR’s military resources, its ability to challenge the USA on the technological front was significantly diminished. Despite transitioning from a state-driven planned economy to a more market-oriented system, the Russian Federation struggled to match the technological and economic prowess of the United States, solidifying the latter’s position as the dominant global superpower in the post-Cold War era.
One of the fallout of the collapse of the USSR was that the newly formed states could not muster sufficient resources for innovative research and development of new technology, to remain at par with the USA. The resource crunch also led a good number of Russian scientists and technology experts to migrate to Western countries, particularly the USA. A paper on Brain drain found that “there was a net loss of published researchers for Russia in the fields of neuroscience, decision sciences, mathematics, biochemistry, pharmacology, chemistry, computer science, chemical engineering, materials science, psychology, medicine, and physics.”(Subbotin and Aref 2020)
The technological supremacy that the USA enjoyed after the Second World War and subsequently after the disintegration of the USSR is unprecedented in the history of human civilization. This led to hubris that made the USA complacent and helped China to acquire the underlying knowledge driving the new technology by allowing American technology giants to build production centers in China. Chinese students flocked to American universities to do Ph.D. and be acquainted with the scientific base of the latest technology. It is to the credit of the Chinese leaders that they understood the critical role of technology in creating an empire in the 21st century. The competitive edge that China enjoys in respect of the most advanced technology is evident from China’s leading position in the most advanced industrial sectors, described below.
ITIF, a US-based nonprofit, nonpartisan research and educational institute, was founded in 2006. A major area of concern of IITF is the “America’s competitive position in advanced technologies and industries that constitute the most strategically important sectors of the economy”. To undertake focused research in this area, the Institute created the Hamilton Center of Industrial Strategy. One of the main mandates of this Center is to research and advocate appropriate strategies to policymakers to keep America the numero uno in emerging technologies and overcome the challenge posed by China. This center has been publishing an index called the Hamilton Index of Advanced-Technology Performance, to track global shares of value-added output in 10 advanced industry sectors of 40 countries. These industries are Pharmaceuticals; Fabricated Metals, Basic Metals, Electrical Equipment; Machinery and Equipment; Motor Vehicles, Other Transportation; Computers and Electronics, Information Technology and Information services; and Chemicals (not including pharmaceuticals).
The 2000 data used for index computation is given below
| Industry | Global Output $Billions | Leading producer | Leader’s share (%) |
| IT and Information Services | 1,900 | USA | 36.4 |
| Computers and Electronics | 1,317 | China | 26.8 |
| Chemicals | 1,146 | China | 29.1 |
| Machinery and Equipment | 1,135 | China | 32.0 |
| Motor Vehicles | 1,093 | China | 24.3 |
| Basic Metals | 976 | China | 45.6 |
| Fabricated Metals | 846 | China | 25.6 |
| Pharmaceuticals | 696 | USA | 28.4 |
| Electrical Equipment | 602 | China | 36.1 |
| Other Transportation | 386 | USA | 34.5 |
| Total | 10.1 trillion |
The top ten countries accounted for 75% of total global production of 10.1 trillion dollars. China’s share was around 25% of the global output of these technology-intensive industries, a little above the share of the rest of the world outside the top 10 producers.
China is the potential challenger to the US supremacy over technology and consequent military dominance over the world. When US technology companies like Apple were rushing to China to take advantage of its cheap labor, none could imagine that China was working on technology assimilation through unbundling the underlying technology stacks, chips by chips. It is now too late for the US President to force Apple to invest 500 billion USD in the USA. Apple has been already disrobed.
Conclusion
The American Empire, like all empires of the past, is on the path of an irretrievable decline. In this article I have highlighted, some early signals indicating the potential future demise of the current superpower of the world- the United States of America.
China appears to be the strongest contender to replace the United States as the next global superpower, driven by its rapid advancements in economic growth, technological innovation, and military strength. However, like the former Soviet Union, China remains an authoritarian state. In societies where mere survival is seen as a privilege, the majority often accepts autocratic rule, as long as day-to-day existence is not a constant struggle.
Yet, man does not live by bread alone. Once basic needs are met, the mind begins to seek higher pursuits—exploring history, envisioning the future, and questioning the world. The ability to seek knowledge freely, to think without bias or fear, is what defines modern humanity. From this perspective, China is among the least desirable places for a thinking individual to live.
The Chinese government has implemented an Individual Social Credit System, where any criticism of the state results in a low score, restricting a person’s rights and opportunities. This system exemplifies the limitations of freedom in China, reinforcing its position as a powerhouse built on control rather than intellectual or ideological openness.
By the end of 2028, when the reign of the current president of the USA ends and the sun sets permanently and irrevocably behind the Statue of Liberty, will it be possible for us to assess this period in the words of Charles Dickens :
“ It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way”
Orwell, in his novel 1984, wrote, “Power is in tearing human minds to pieces and putting them together again in new shapes of your own choosing.” As we look toward the future, we can only hope that by 2084, no such empire will rise to wield such power.
Footnote:
The second act takes place off the continent, and it’s striking how quickly it begins. Just three years after filling out the shape of the logo map, the United States started annexing new territory overseas. First, it claimed dozens of uninhabited islands in the Caribbean and the Pacific. Then Alaska in 1867. From 1898 to 1900 it absorbed the bulk of Spain’s overseas empire (the Philippines, Puerto Rico, and Guam) and annexed the non-Spanish lands of Hawai‘i, Wake Island, and American Samoa. In 1917 it bought the U.S. Virgin Islands. By the Second World War, the territories made up nearly a fifth of the land area of the Greater United States.( Imerwahr, Daniel, page 21)
Table 1: List of Past Empires
| Empire | Period | Peak Size | Regions covered |
| Ancient Egyptian Empire | BCE. 2686–2181 BCE | A very rough estimate 1.5 million square kilometers (around 579,000 square miles). | At its height, the boundary of the empire was: Damascus in Syria to Khartoum in Sudan, and from El Alamein in Egypt to Gaza in Palestine |
| Akkadian Empire | BCE 2334–2154 BCE | At its height, the empire covered approximately 800,000 square kilometers (310,000 square miles), extending across | Founded by Sargon of Akkad, it was one of the earliest empires in Mesopotamia. Its boundaries were Mesopotamia, the Levant, and parts of Anatolia. |
| Assyrian Empire: | Old Period (c. 2025–1363 BCE): Middle Period (c. 1363–912 BCE) Neo Period (c.911–609 BCE | At its height around 700 BCE, the Empire covered approximately an area of 1.5 million square kilometers (580,000 square miles). | The Empire’s boundary was : the Caucasus Mountains in the north; Egypt and Arabia in the south, Mediterranean Sea in the west and Persia in the east. The area covered modern day Iraq, Syria, Turkey, and parts of Iran, Israel, and Jordan |
| The Persian (Achaemenid) Empire | 550–330 BCE | About 5.5 million square kilometers. (2.1 million square mile) | The Empire’s boundary stretched to Balkan Peninsula and Egypt in the west, most of the West Asia and a large part of the Central Asia in the northeast and the Indus valley in the southeast. |
| The Roman Empire | 27 BCE – 476 CE: 500 years approx. | Under emperor Trojan – 5 million square kilometers | Starting from the Atlantic coast of northern Britain, through Europe to the Black Sea, and from there to the Red Sea and across North Africa to the Atlantic coast. |
| Maya | 200 900CE | At its peak the Maya Empire covered 320,000 km (125,000 sq mile) | Maya Empire covered present day’s Central Mexico, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and El Salvador. |
| The Gupta Empire | c. 320–550 CE | About 3 million square kilometers. | South Asia (modern-day India, Pakistan, Bangladesh). |
| The Umayyad and Abbasid Caliphates | 661–1258 CE | Umayyad Caliphate—about 11 million square kilometers; Abbasid Caliphate—about 13 million square kilometers. | The Middle East, North Africa, Spain, parts of India. |
| Inca Empire | 1200- 1532 CE | Peak size of the empire 2 million square kilometers (770,000 square miles) | The Andean region, present-day Peru, Ecuador, Chile, Andes Mountains |
| The Mongol Empire | 1206–1368 CE: 162 years approx. | 23 million square kilometers | Starting from the Sea of Japan in the east to modern-day Hungary in the west and parts of the Indian subcontinent in the south. |
| The Ottoman Empire | 1299–1922 CE | Approximately 5.2 million square kilometers | Southeastern Europe, Western Asia, North Africa |
| The Aztec Empire | 1428–1521 CE | Approximately 200,000 square kilometers | Central Mexico. |
| The Spanish Empire | 1492–1898 CE | Around 13.7 million square kilometers. | The Americas, Europe, parts of Africa, and Asia. |
| The French Colonial Empire | 1534–1980s CE | Approximately 13 million square kilometers | North America, the Caribbean, parts of Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific. |
| The Qing Dynasty | 1644–1912 CE | Around 14 million square kilometers. | China, Mongolia, Tibet, and parts of Central Asia. |
| The Russian Empire | 1721–1917 CE | Around 22.8 million square kilometers. | Russia, Eastern Europe, parts of the Middle East, and Central Asia. |
| The British Empire | 1497 – 1947 CE | The British Empire controlled approximately 35.5 million square kilometers (13.7 million square miles), – i.e 24% of land mass of the world |
| Empire | Contribution |
| Ancient Egyptian Empire | Construction of the pyramids, temples, and obelisks –proof of advanced engineering skills and architectural knowledge. Developed hieroglyphic writing. Building irrigation systems and agricultural techniques- maximizing the agricultural output from fertile lands along the Nile River. Advancement in mathematics and astronomy for predicting flooding in the river Nile. |
| Akkadian Empire | A centralized governance structure was conceived and implemented. Emperor Sargon established a central government with appointed Governors administering a demarcated territory.. |
| Assyrian Empire: | Use of iron for weapon making. A number of inventions in the field of mathematics. For example, division of circle in 360 degrees. Use of wheels in making of pottery and using it to build chariot for warfare. Creation of a number system with the base of 60. Assyrians started dividing hour into 60 minutes and then a minute to 60. |
| The Persian (Achaemenid) Empire | The lasting contribution of the Persian Empire has been in the field of public administration. The Persian dynasty created a well-organized central administrative authority, managing appointed governors with well-defined power. The Persian Empire was a pioneer in many other fields- the introduction of the world’s first organized postal services, the building roads across the Empire, and creating garden attached to a house |
| The Roman Empire | Art and Architecture, Technology and Science,Literature and Language, Idea of rule of law and formal governance structure |
| Maya | Hieroglyphic writing, astronomy, calendar, mathematics, team sports, step pyramids. |
| The Gupta Empire | The Gupta Empire is often referred to as the “Golden Age” of India. It was a period of great achievements in art, science, mathematics, astronomy, and literature. The concept of zero and the decimal system were developed during this period, and Gupta art and architecture laid the foundation for classical Indian cultural traditions. |
| The Umayyad and Abbasid Caliphates | The Spanish Empire was one of the first global empires, thanks to its exploration and colonization of the Americas. It became extremely wealthy from its colonies, particularly in gold and silver. Spanish culture, language, and Catholicism spread throughout the Americas, with enduring impacts on the Western Hemisphere. The empire also played a central role in the Atlantic slave trade. |
| Inca Empire | Inca civilization is known for its contribution to the artistic and cultural milieu of its time. UNESCO’s World Heritage Convention has appreciated Fortress Machu Picchu as among the greatest artistic, architectural, and land use achievements anywhere. The Empire constructed roadways with a combined length of around 15,000 miles. |
| The Mongol Empire | Globalization of history, connecting East and West under one empire and early facilitators of trade and commerce. |
| The Ottoman Empire | One of the longest-lasting empires in history, the Ottoman Empire was a dominant force in Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa for over 600 years. The Ottomans contributed to the development of architecture, military strategy, and governance, and played a central role in connecting East and West. |
| The Aztec Empire | The Aztec Empire was one of the most advanced civilizations in the Americas. They created a highly organized society with sophisticated agricultural systems, advanced mathematics, and a detailed understanding of astronomy. The Aztecs’ religious and cultural practices, as well as their artistic achievements, left a profound mark on Mesoamerican history. |
| The Spanish Empire | The Spanish Empire was one of the first global empires, thanks to its exploration and colonization of the Americas. It became extremely wealthy from its colonies, particularly in gold and silver. Spanish culture, language, and Catholicism spread throughout the Americas, with enduring impacts on the Western Hemisphere. The empire also played a central role in the Atlantic slave trade. |
| The French Colonial Empire | France built one of the largest and most influential colonial empires, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia. French culture, language, and legal systems have left an enduring mark on many former colonies, particularly in West Africa, the Caribbean, and Indochina. The empire also played a key role in the spread of Catholicism. |
| The Qing Dynasty | The Qing Dynasty was the last imperial dynasty of China and the world’s most populous empire at its height. Under the Qing, China saw significant territorial expansion, cultural flourishing, and advancements in art and technology. Despite its eventual collapse, the Qing Empire shaped modern Chinese identity and left a legacy in political structures, art, and cultural exchanges |
| The Russian Empire | Inca civilization is known for its contribution to artistic and cultural milieu of its time. UNESCO’s World Heritage Convention has appreciated the Fortress Machu Picchu as among the greatest artistic, architectural and land use achievements anywhere. The Empire constructed roadways with a combined length of around 15,000 miles. |